From: Ramez Naam (mez@apexnano.com)
Date: Tue Jun 03 2003 - 11:42:54 MDT
From: Robin Hanson [mailto:rhanson@gmu.edu]
> Er, Eliezer, this *is* exactly an example of Doomsday type
> reasoning. If you are a billiard who does not know his
> number, you reason that since only one in a hundred
> million balls are in the small barrel, there is only a one
> in a hundred million chance that you are in the small barrel.
>
> Then you look at your number and decide that there is
> now a 50/50 chance you are in the small barrel. Your
> estimate of "doom" (living in a small barrel) just
> went way way up.
I think the key point here is that the DA depends on assumptions about
the distribution and selection of sentients and longer-lived and
shorter-lived civilizations. These assumptions are completely
arbitrary. The DA has zero predictive power.
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