From: Brett Paatsch (paatschb@optusnet.com.au)
Date: Tue Jun 17 2003 - 09:49:00 MDT
Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> Brett wrote:
> >
> > PS: If I *knew* what the greatest threat to survival to (say 150)
> > was for the average healthy 36 year old Australian male was that
> > might focus my energies wonderfully.
>
> ### UFAI.
>
> I think it could happen within the next 20 to 40 years, with a higher
> probability than the sum total of the prosaic causes of death killing
> you over the same time period.
Un-friendly AI ? That *is* interesting.
Given that a 36 year old Australian male (not thinking of anyone in
particular :-) would be 56 to 76 in the timeframe you nominate and
76 is probably slightly over the average lifespan expected on the
tables bandied about at present, you really think unfriendly AI is
that big a risk?.
Not being an AI enthusiast of the pedigree of certain others
on this list I wonder:
1) What is the probability of General AI in the next 20 years
of *either* friendly or unfriendly variety? (I'm thinking about the
massive parallelism of brains and that maybe a subjective is
a necessary pre-requisite for "I" and might be not so trivial to
engineer.)
2) How would this probability be figured? What assumptions
are required? (I am an open-minded AI sceptic. But then I
am an "I" sceptic too so that's not saying a great deal.)
3) Can friendly AI be built that would be competitive with
un-friendly AI or would the friendly AI be at the same sort
of competitive/selective disadvantage as a lion that wastes
time and sentiment (resources) making friends with zebras?
Regards,
Brett Paatsch
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