From: Olga Bourlin (fauxever@sprynet.com)
Date: Sun Jun 15 2003 - 15:15:22 MDT
From: "gts" <gts_2000@yahoo.com>
> Olga Bourlin wrote:
>
> > Don't know what's up with you gts. It doesn't seem to matter when I
> > tell you that there are reliable techniques...
>
> There are a million people just like you, Olga, who believe there are
> "reliable techniques" for trading the market. I was once one of them. To
be
> very frank about it, and I don't mean to be rude, but I'm quite sure that
> I've forgotten more about stock trading than you ever knew.
I'm still on a learning curve, and I don't doubt it. One of my stock buddy
mentors (who's been in the business for about 20 years) told me that some of
the biggest losers he'd seen in the stock market were people who tended to
analyze things a tad too much. He told me mathematicians were some of the
worst investor/traders he'd seen. This is obviously anecdotal - not real
evidence - one man's opinion. But I put all the information I get in a
mental notebook, and this little anectodal remark I put in the category of:
"Hmmm, interesting - look into this sometime."
> I know it's difficult to understand and believe... trust me I spent a big
> chunk of my life as an investment professional who believed and
promulgated
> the same religion that you hold dear. I stubbornly banged my head for
nearly
> 12 years against the truth before it finally sunk in.
I don't hold anything in the stock market dear. It's always changing, and
one has to stay flexible (and in as much cash - to capitalize on the
*running* opportunities - as possible).
> Fortunately the market does go up over time with the growth of the world
> economy, so any trading strategy that keeps you long more than short, and
in
> more than out, is going to make money over time. However this fact also
> helps to perpetuate the myth that market skill exists. If you don't
> understand statistics, and if you don't understand such concepts as
> opportunity cost, then you will tend to see your profits as evidence of
> trading skill.
I understand statistics, but ... hmmm, it HAS been decades since I took that
course in college. But I can give a chart a quick-and-dirty once over. I
use other indicators, but confess I've never read about the concept of
opportunity cost (but am willing to learn). I barely stayed awake trying to
understand the Elliott Wave (even though I'm still willing to learn). But I
do understand how to "book 'em" - book those profits. Give the losers the
heave-ho asap. Use trailing stops on the winners. One of my favorite
quotes of all time is: "I cried all the way to the bank." - Liberace
Olga
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