From: Anders Sandberg (asa@nada.kth.se)
Date: Sat Jun 14 2003 - 01:43:52 MDT
On Fri, Jun 13, 2003 at 08:36:45PM -0700, Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
>
> The questions I'm trying to raise are not whether things will
> eventually work out (I point out the U.S. efforts with respect
> to coal) -- the question I'm trying to focus on is "How much do
> we get set back if we hit the wall hard?"
Much will depend on how fast the decline in oil and subsequent oil price
increases are (let's not assume much pre-planning). If it is instant,
then we get a hard wall hit and an expensive transition to other ways of
powering cars and society, if it is slower we get the normal transition.
Looking at Campbells graphs
(http://www.mbendi.co.za/pics/graphs/AllHydrocarbons.gif from
http://www.mbendi.co.za/indy/oilg/p0070.htm or the ones at
http://www.oilcrisis.com/midpoint.htm) suggests a decline over many
decades, with a real crisis mid-century. This is definitely not too fast
for technology and society to adapt, unless one is struck in
conventional thinking. Which I actually think much of the oil debate is
in: even if we ignore our transhumanizing technology speculations, it is
fairly clear that simple nanotech (like photovoltaics and smart
materials), biotech and simple AI can change the situation tremendously.
We might never build replicating robots for solar power manufacture (one
of my favorites), but that is a technology that seems believable for
mid-century, and stuff like genemod biofuels, nuclear power, hydrogen
economy, methane pools, photovoltaic roads etc are far less drastic.
-- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! asa@nada.kth.se http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/ GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y
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