From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Thu May 15 2003 - 13:56:22 MDT
Spudboy100@aol.com wrote,
> <http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-michaels051503.asp>
>
><May 15, 2003, 9:00 a.m.
> Tornado Spin
> Global-warming sneaks back into the weather report.
> By Patrick J. Michaels
>
> ...Any reporter (or cartoonist) doing his homework might have asked
> if indeed the number of big storms (categories 3-5 on the Fujita
> scale) is increasing. The fact is that the vast majority of
> tornadoes are in the "weenier" classes. Only about 5 percent
> reach category 3 or higher. (The severity data is here. Click on,
> <http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/>
> graph it up, and you'll see that the number of severe tornadoes is
dropping.
This seems to be deliberately misleading. Reread his words carefully to see
if you can spot the deception!
The number of tornadoes is dropping only if you only look at the 5% of the
data that supports your case (that is, the 5% in categories 3-5 on the
Fujita scale). If you look at the other 95% of the data, the trend clearly
shows a definite increase.
Michaels seems to deliberately exclude the 95% of the data that proves him
wrong, and focuses on only 5% that shows him right. I know of no
statistical justification for selectively restricting data to just those
categories that fit your theory. This seems to be deliberately misleading.
Despite this politically-biased and unscientific rant, the very site
referenced in the article confirms that the number of tornadoes is
dramatically increasing. Their trend graph shows this:
<http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/t50-98.gif>
-- Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, IAM, GSEC, IBMCP <www.HarveyNewstrom.com> <www.Newstaff.com>
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