From: Erik Sayle (lists@thecri.org)
Date: Tue May 13 2003 - 20:18:39 MDT
A report out today:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030512/hl_nm/hiv_1940_dc1000
_1
Spread of HIV Strain Began in 1940, Spurred by War
NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Strains of HIV (news - web sites) largely
limited to West Africa appear to have first infected humans in the 1940s,
and the current epidemic involving these strains may have originated between
1955 and 1970 as a result of war, an international group of researchers said
Monday.
What this tells me is a few things: AIDS is very unlike SARS, but lessons
could be drawn nonetheless. AIDS is not very communicable like SARS is. AIDS
was inevitably fatal, but the time could be from 1 -20 years before death,
SARS is 2 weeks. AIDS was around along time ago, but it took the advent of
modern travel to spread it everywhere. Comparisons to Smallpox are not
relevant as it was wiped out many years ago. 30 years ago people traveled
much less than today.
Waiting and hoping for a cure or vaccine did not work for AIDS, there still
is none! Prevention and containment works! In this age of globalism a
disease can spread very quickly and even with modern biotech, a cure may not
be easy. There are many unknowns, and the knowns are pretty bad; contagious,
~15% deadly, lives on surfaces and feces....... Sounds pretty scary to me!
In any case, Dr. George Poste, a biowarfare expert says that bioweapons are
~4 years out so SARS is a good way to get ready. In fact, I think more
should be done. I feel the chances of my being killed by a missile vs a
pathogen increasingly favor pathogens, yet the gov is nickle and diming the
CDC. We spend hundreds of billions on militry offensive and defensive
weapons, yet very, very little on biodefense. This is because we have been
very fortunate over the last 50 years from pathogens, but this tide may be
turning. Like with AIDS the best way to treat something is to not catch it
in the first place!
Erik
----- Original Message -----
From: "Robert J. Bradbury" <bradbury@aeiveos.com>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 5:33 PM
Subject: Re: "Hysteria, Thy Name is SARS"
>
> On Tue, 13 May 2003, John K Clark wrote:
>
> > "Samantha" <samantha@objectent.com> Wrote:
> >
> > > The same Micahel Fumento who touted the "myth of heterosexual AIDS"?
> > > This man is a joke and I consider him personally culpable for
> > > millions of needless deaths.
> >
> > What on Earth are you talking about? The man said 13 years ago that all
the
> > talk about AIDS breaking out in the heterosexual community was nonsense
and
> > he explained exactly why with facts and figures. Time has proven him
> > absolutely correct. How can being right cause the death of millions?
>
> In the interest of having my head ripped off since nobody has done
> so recently, I'll critique both Samantha and John.
>
> During the late '80s and '90s the primary mode of HIV transmission
> in the U.S. was through unprotected sex between homosexual (primarily
> male) individuals. To cite a "myth" of "heterosexual AIDS" in the
> U.S. is not "unreasonable" because the primary transmission route
> *in the U.S.* was through homosexual contacts. However(!) the
> primary transmission route outside of the U.S., esp. in Africa
> is through heterosexual contacts. The size of the problem in
> Africa currently dwarfs the problem in the U.S. (perhaps by
> an order of magnitude or more).
>
> So John and Samantha may both be right in their perspectives
> depending on what framework/context one chooses to look at
> the problem from.
>
> The SARS outbreak may serve to detail how we can get it
> wrong (the China cover-up) and get it right (the Vietnam,
> Singapore, perhaps Toronto -- crank down fast and hard).
>
> We will be lucky if the SARS genome turns out to be stable
> and we can relatively quickly develop a vaccine against it.
> As the HIV epedemic demonstrates -- we don't want to get
> it wrong -- and that includes not taking narrow-minded views
> of transmission routes that may be significantly different
> in various cultures.
>
> Remember the *selfish genes*....
>
> Robert
>
>
>
>
>
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