From: Nick Bostrom (nick.bostrom@philosophy.oxford.ac.uk)
Date: Thu May 01 2003 - 08:00:26 MDT
>
> Validity of Cosmic Doomsday Argument (CDA) implies that
> Frequency of Doomsday civs >= N * Frequency of Diaspora civs,
> where N = (Typical Diaspora pop/Typical Doomsday pop)
>
>This is a very simple observation, but I don't think I've
>seen it anywhere in the Doomsday Argument literature.
(I think I imply it in the discussion of the no-outsider requirement in my
book.)
> It would
>be interesting to have a realistic value for N.
Yes, although I think you should say average Diaspora pop rather than
typical. Maybe typically there is just one super-being, but once in a while
you get a synchronized uploading scenario or whatever resulting in a huge
population.
Note that only certain kinds of risks are appropriate conclusions of this
DA. It would not do to suppose that we probably are unusually unlucky and
that a meteor is about to strike us or some such. Rather, the risk would
have to be one that could plausibly turn out to be generic for all
civilizations, such as the risk that nanotech leads to deadly terrorism or
something like that.
All the more important, then, that it seems observation selection theory
doesn't imply the DA, provided one chose the reference class with some care.
Best wishes,
Nick
Nick Bostrom
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow, Oxford University
Harris Manchester College; Mansfield Road; Oxford OX1 3TD; U. K.
tel: (+44) 7789 744242 | fax (+44) 1865 276932 | web:
http://www.nickbostrom.com
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