RE: SARS: Strategies

From: Phil Osborn (philosborn2001@yahoo.com)
Date: Sun Apr 27 2003 - 16:48:26 MDT

  • Next message: Robert J. Bradbury: "SPACE: The Bezos Express"

    I scared the s... out of my then "girlfriend" a couple
    months back when I suggested that she stock up in
    advance on face masks, consumables, NAC, Zicam and
    Sambucol. It was clear then that this was serious.

    There are 20 doublings from now to complete saturation
    of the human population. For a while it appeared that
    doublings were at a rate of one per 7-10 days, which
    doesn't leave time for a vaccine. Now, with extensive
    containment and detection efforts underway and better,
    more verifiable reporting, the rate seems to have
    slowed to one doubling per 15-20 days, which gives us
    about a year, ceteris parabus (sp?).

    However, the containment facilities, etc. are already
    being strained to the limit. If SARS breaks out and
    can no longer be contained, then the doubling time
    will drop drastically, and then the best strategy may
    be to fly and then boat to a remote enough region - S.
    Sea island, outback, alaskan wilderness, etc., - that
    no one infected is likely to get that far, and hole up
    for the duration, until it's burned thru the
    population and/or a vaccine is available.

    As has been mentioned, if this gets out in Africa it's
    going to take care of most of the AIDS problem, ditto
    worldwide on a real outbreak scenario. The Social
    Security System will benefit. And, China may
    "benefit" in the long run, as they have a serious
    problem with millions of unemployed/unemployable rural
    peasants flooding into the cities.

    As any serious search will reveal, SARS is quite
    capable of killing healthy young individuals, but of
    course the elderly or immune-compromised are at
    special risk.

    A research scientist friend of mine with good DoD
    connections tells me that he has info to the effect
    that DoD gives SARS a 50% chance of being a bioweapon
    that got away, presumeably from teh Chinese.

    Ironic, if true, as they are the major source of the
    Flu, costing a hundred billion $ or so per year, due
    to raising pigs, ducks, etc.

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