From: Phil Osborn (philosborn2001@yahoo.com)
Date: Sun Apr 27 2003 - 16:48:26 MDT
I scared the s... out of my then "girlfriend" a couple
months back when I suggested that she stock up in
advance on face masks, consumables, NAC, Zicam and
Sambucol. It was clear then that this was serious.
There are 20 doublings from now to complete saturation
of the human population. For a while it appeared that
doublings were at a rate of one per 7-10 days, which
doesn't leave time for a vaccine. Now, with extensive
containment and detection efforts underway and better,
more verifiable reporting, the rate seems to have
slowed to one doubling per 15-20 days, which gives us
about a year, ceteris parabus (sp?).
However, the containment facilities, etc. are already
being strained to the limit. If SARS breaks out and
can no longer be contained, then the doubling time
will drop drastically, and then the best strategy may
be to fly and then boat to a remote enough region - S.
Sea island, outback, alaskan wilderness, etc., - that
no one infected is likely to get that far, and hole up
for the duration, until it's burned thru the
population and/or a vaccine is available.
As has been mentioned, if this gets out in Africa it's
going to take care of most of the AIDS problem, ditto
worldwide on a real outbreak scenario. The Social
Security System will benefit. And, China may
"benefit" in the long run, as they have a serious
problem with millions of unemployed/unemployable rural
peasants flooding into the cities.
As any serious search will reveal, SARS is quite
capable of killing healthy young individuals, but of
course the elderly or immune-compromised are at
special risk.
A research scientist friend of mine with good DoD
connections tells me that he has info to the effect
that DoD gives SARS a 50% chance of being a bioweapon
that got away, presumeably from teh Chinese.
Ironic, if true, as they are the major source of the
Flu, costing a hundred billion $ or so per year, due
to raising pigs, ducks, etc.
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