From: Greg Burch (gregburch@gregburch.net)
Date: Sun Apr 27 2003 - 08:05:23 MDT
-----Original Message-----
> From: Spudboy100@aol.com
> Sent: Sunday, April 27, 2003 2:42 AM
> http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.05/view.html?pg=4
Since this article addresses two of my leading interests, space and
China, I read it with great interest. Although Sterling notes that
there is almost too much of a gap between China and India for there to
be a "race" per se (greater, I think, than the gap between Russia and
the U.S. in say 1960), he makes a good point that both countries have an
impetus to develop the technologies necessary and each perceives the
other as a strategic rival, thus creating the premises for a "race."
I see the more interesting, and potentially fruitful, space rivalry as
being between China and the U.S. It's a near-certainty that the Chinese
will launch their first manned spacecraft this year, probably in
October. They're more ready than either Russia or the U.S. were when
they made their first manned launches, and the new government NEEDS a
dramatic piece of positive, nationalistically-reinforcing news. The
conditions for fairly rapid progress in the Chinese space program from
now on are very good: China's got lots of cash, there's broad and deep
support for the program throughout Chinese society, and the
technological conditions are excellent. In this regard, I don't think
India comes even close to having the same conditions for progress as
China.
No, the real target for a "Chinese space race" is the U.S. And I think
this is a GREAT thing, since it could provide the same kind of spur to
both sides that the Cold War rivalry did in the 1950s-1970s. The hunger
for a globally-visible affirmation that China has "arrived" on the world
stage is nearly universal in that country, and this impetus provides a
deep reservoir of support to achieve the Chinese space program's stated
goal, which is the establishment of a permanently manned base on the
moon within the next twenty years.
Beyond (or beside) this, I see a potentially very favorable development
in the possibility of inviting the Chinese to participate in the ISS
program. Since the Shenzhou spacecraft is just an updated Soyuz, it
ought to be maximally compatible with the Russian elements of the
station. Here's my dream: The Russians carry through with their deal to
begin launching from the ESA equatorial launch facility in South
America, so the station can be slowly moved to a more reasonably aligned
orbit. Meanwhile, the Chinese begin to provide ferry and lifeboat
service with Shenzhou flights, while at the same time working on a
unilateral lunar program. Wouldn't that be great?!?!
Greg Burch
Vice-President, Extropy Institute
http://www.gregburch.net
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