From: gts (gts_2000@yahoo.com)
Date: Fri Apr 25 2003 - 16:53:03 MDT
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
> On Fri, 25 Apr 2003, gts wrote:
>> It could be the answer to the riddle. Perhaps the probability of
>> doomsday-in-the-near-future is offset by the probability of
>> immortality-in-the-near-future.
>
> Can't be remotely "immortal" without giving up normal
> procreation. The hazard function catches up with you over
> longevities ranging from 2000-7000 years.
Can't say I'm familiar with the hazard function, but wouldn't human
longevities of 2k to 7k extend doomsday dramatically into the future? I
estimate that if typical human lives are from 2k to 7k then doomsday would
be postponed approximately 25 to 90 times into the future. This could be a
huge difference. For example if the supposed doomsday is scheduled for
~5,000 A.D. then now it is scheduled for sometime between ~125,000 A.D. to
~450,000 A.D.
Certainly by 450,000 A.D. we could very well have already launched Diaspora,
which leads to the question of whether our spawned civilizations should be
subject to our current doomsday equations or their own.
I'm not following these doomsday threads closely, so forgive me if my
thoughts have already been addressed.
-gts
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