RE: Arab World Stunned by Baghdad's Fall

From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Sat Apr 12 2003 - 06:59:50 MDT

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    Christian Weisgerber wrote,
    > There's a lot of spin you can put on some cheering crowds. I'll
    > try to take a realistic view, although it's probably just the kind
    > of "negative spin" you had in mind.
    >
    > You need to consider that there is a selection effect going on.
    > Those population parts that welcome the Coalition troops will cheer
    > publically. Those that don't will stay out of sight. Just how
    > much of the overall population is happy with the turn of events is
    > difficult to tell.

    Exactly. I don't know why this is not obvious to everyone. While Saddam
    was in power, only his supporters showed public support while opposition was
    quiet. Now that the American soldiers are in power, only their supporters
    showed public support while the opposition was quiet. It is the same
    situation in both sides. All it proves to me is that people are like sheep
    and will follow their masters in power in most cases.

    The real test will be whether their is peaceful society during the next few
    months or if we have riots, terrorist attacks and demonstrations against
    America. They no longer have a government suppressing pro-America support,
    and have American troops their actively encouraging in, so it will hard to
    explain away as faked propaganda.

    Anti-American sentiment may grow instead of decreasing, and will probably be
    based on immediate living conditions instead of long-term political views.
    Remember that times got tougher in Russia after communism fell, and many in
    the public sector rebelled against capitalism at first, claiming it made
    things worse. I think the near-term living conditions in Iraq will be rough
    for a while under the occupation. The occupying power will not be as
    proficient at running the country as they were at warring with it. The
    populace will rebel and complain how things actually got worse under U.S.
    rule than under the previous regime. If this happens, it will be based on
    the personal lifestyle of individuals and not based on political theories
    about freedom or rights. People quickly forget about their rights when they
    want food, water or a job. Immediate needs take precedence and will shape
    public opinion.

    America quickly took over the oil wells and are keeping them going. Soon we
    will be shipping oil to America. If we don't immediately take over public
    utilities, food production, and the economic situation, and keep these going
    as well, I predict there will be a backlash. It will appear (rightly or
    wrongly) that we only maintained the needs of America but neglected the
    needs of the Iraqi people. Careful handling with delicate PR is necessary
    at this stage, and it is extremely easy to blow it.

    --
    Harvey Newstrom, CISSP, IAM, GSEC
    <www.HarveyNewstrom.com>
    


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