Re: IRAQ: Predictable catastrophes of human stupidity

From: Andrew Clough (aclough@mit.edu)
Date: Sat Apr 12 2003 - 01:23:24 MDT

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    At 12:45 AM 4/12/2003 -0400, you wrote:
    >aclough wrote:
    >
    >"I'm sure that there we will miss scores of opportunities to gain the
    >approval of the Iraqis and help them towards an ideal democracy. Our
    >mismanagement might result in starvation. Our soldiers might be
    >prejudiced against Arabs. Our leader's speeches might slander the efforts
    >that the Iraqis make in bringing themselves towards democracy. In short,
    >we might do just as bad a job of occupying Iraq as we
    >did of occupying Japan after WWII."
    >
    >With all due respect, one can simply suggest that the scenarios of
    >mismanagement you forecast "might" not happen, either. But more to the
    >point, I would ask that you clarify your position regarding the "bad job"
    >we did of occupying Japan after WWII. Last time I checked, Japan has been
    >a stable democracy and free nation since 1952.

    My point is that Japan's stable democracy and freedom are not a factor of
    our leaders being particularly intelligent about the occupation, but
    happened dispute such things heavy-handed censorship and
    price-control-induced food shortages.

    >Some highlights of our "bad job" of occupation include the granting of
    >suffrage to women, with fourteen million of them going to the polls in
    >April 1946. In fact, thirty-nine women, including one well-known
    >prostitute, were elected to the Diet. Additionally, MacArthur and Yoshida
    >put an end to the "absentee landlordism" that so dominated the lives of
    >Japanese farmers. By 1950, ninety percent of Japanese farmland was owned
    >by the farmers themselves. Beyond that, MacArthur dismissed over five
    >thousand officers of Japan's secret police and established habeas corpus.
    >Indeed, a truly dismal record.
    >
    >Regardless of the missteps that may occur along the way during the
    >temporary occupation, the odds of Iraq becoming a flourishing democracy
    >afterward are still a thousand times better than those had Saddam Hussein
    >and his heirs remained in power.

    I couldn't have said it better myself. Even if one has a bad opinion of
    the Bush administration's ability to keep its foot out of its mouth, or its
    ability to remain objectively judicious, it is still likely that a liberal
    democratic regime might arise.

    >Regards,
    >
    >Max Plumm
    >
    >"As we were driving on a deserted highway between Oiso and Tokyo, two
    >American GIs suddenly appeared and signaled my driver to halt. I imagined
    >them to be on some kind of marauding expedition, but they turned out to be
    >soldiers returning to Tokyo who had lost their way. I offered to take them
    >back to Tokyo."
    >
    >"We had not proceeded far before they were pressing chocolates, then
    >chewing gum, and finally cigarettes upon me. I recall thinking at the time
    >that it was the natural way of acting on their part, and the inherent good
    >nature of the average American, which enabled the Occupation of Japan to
    >be completed without a shot being fired."
    >
    >
    >-Shigeru Yoshida

    This kind of good did not take any planning by the people in charge, but
    happened naturally as a consequence of the situation. This gives me hope
    that it will happen again in Iraq.

    Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. Don't assign
    to stupidity what might be due to ignorance. And try not to assume you
    opponent is the ignorant one-until you can show it isn't you.
    -M.N. Plano



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