From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@tsoft.com)
Date: Thu Apr 10 2003 - 22:43:49 MDT
Michael Dickey writes
> Indeed, it is better today than it has been at *any* time in the past
> throughout human history. Everyone is living longer, fuller, healthier
> lives with more free time today than at any point throughout human history.
> ...I think this is a point not emphasized enough
> today as we are overrun by doom and gloom nay Sayers in our culture of fear.
>
> Take my favorite example, for instance, farming. In 1650 some 98% of the
> worlds entire population farm, making just enough food for themselves. They
> worked long, back breaking days laboring in the fields from sunrise to
> sunset. There was no free time for art, poetry, music, science, or
> progress, let alone any effort to bring about a singularity, you spent your
> entire existence toiling away just to stay alive, and died around 35 - 40
> years old.
It's interesting to note, however, and contrary to my optimism
and contrary to what I think is the very long term trend, life
appears to have gotten harder for people following the agricultural
revolution---or at least for some people.
While a number of hunter/gatherer tribes, e.g., the Algonquin
Indians, led absolutely miserable lives (in terms of prosperity
and standard of living), and had an enormously hard time of it,
other hunter-gatherer groups were better off than after the
advent of agriculture.
Agriculture allowed a much higher population density, often of
shorter, less healthy people, but proved decisive in dominance.
(Larger armies, more advanced tech, etc.)
One is reminded of Robin Hanson's "What if Uploads Come First?",
a bleak (and to me slightly unbelievable) picture of how once
again high tech might result in a *lowering* of income.
Lee
> By 1850, it was some 80% of the population farmed, by 1910, with
> the advent of nitrogen fertilizers and the recognition of the value of
> mechanization, rapid changes took place. In that year, probably some 70% of
> people farmed, but by 1950 it was more like 30%. Today fewer than 2% of the
> entire world farms, and we produce more food at less cost than ever before.
> Which means through technology, today your average farmer does the work of
> some 100+ farmers of a century ago. Amazing. And now that we don't have to
> toil away in fields all day, we have time for hobbies, for nurturing
> interests in things that make life better, longer, and more enjoyable.
> 'Retirement' did not even exist 60 years ago. We now spend more time
> learning and in retirement than we do working, at least in the post
> industrialized west, and current trends show this will eventually spread to
> all people.
>
> Michael Dickey
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