From: Spudboy100@aol.com
Date: Wed Apr 09 2003 - 23:33:51 MDT
Damien (phoenix@ugcs.caltech.edu)
::This seems like TechnoRapture thinking to me. "We don't need to worry
about
that problem because we'll have it solved soon. Somehow."
-xx- Damien X-) ::
Yes, handwaving; that's what we are tuned into because we ain't got the bucks
to make most of this futuristic stuff happen, ourselves. Yet, it still seems
worth considering, because a small portion of technical development will
occur. Darwinian randomness, combined with cultural norms, which motivate
economics and, thus, direct research and development produce technological,
industrial advances, and scientific achievements. War, frequently also
produces such a stimulus, as we all well know.
But I count war as part of cultural norms. Darwinian randomness is the
serrendipity-euraka moment that sometimes occurs. Darwinian randomness is
also, sometimes, the choice of the marketplace, and sometimes it is how
products are marketed. For example, the French Minitel kind of chat thingy,
was never really offered in the USA, but culturally, has been a hit in France
(I'm Thrilled!) The Japanese were/are the 1st to make it big with instant
messaging/games for "video displays on pagers," In the US, we're slower to
adopt this. Maybe the most successful technological innovators might be India
or Europe or Brazil, given a few decades.
My guess is that given enough time, human beings, or the techno-raptured
robots will
come up with interesting solutions. If we get wiped-out by the sun increasing
its brightness (surely not an anthrogenic cause!), then the Kyoto Accord
mentality wouldn't have mattered, anyway.
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