From: Gary Miller (garymiller@starband.net)
Date: Tue Apr 08 2003 - 15:57:33 MDT
>> One conclusion I can make which I think is quite accurate
>> is that it would be extropic to seek to make wars as technologically
>> advanced as possible. It seems that the more advanced the war, the
>> fewer casualties that occur, especially civilian casualties.
I agree and with further advances in intelligence and precision guided
weapons systems direct retaliation against dictators might be a
valid alternative to war itself.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-extropians@extropy.org [mailto:owner-extropians@extropy.org]
On Behalf Of Mike Lorrey
Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2003 3:19 PM
To: extropians@extropy.org
Subject: Re: [kinda war related] extrapolations, was Kamen's waste
disposer
--- Damien Sullivan <phoenix@ugcs.caltech.edu> wrote:
> On Tue, Apr 08, 2003 at 12:09:47AM -0700, spike66 wrote:
>
> > ps, I have been doing some extrapolations on war, and the results
> are not so
> > discouraging. Comparing 20th century conflicts such as the two
> world wars
> > with the current war, we see some interesting trends. In the
>
> Don't forget the war in the DRC, which since August 1998 has killed at
> least 3.3 million people.
> http://allafrica.com/stories/200304080209.html
One conclusion I can make which I think is quite accurate is that it
would be extropic to seek to make wars as technologically advanced as
possible. It seems that the more advanced the war, the fewer casualties
that occur, especially civilian casualties. The Congolese example is a
control point, demonstrating that lowtech war, even in the modern age,
is messy with lots of collateral damage.
In the current Iraq war, coalition casualties are less than 100, and
while Iraqi military casualties are estimated at between 40,000 to as
much as 100,000, there are less than 700 civilian casualties, which is
quite amazing. I seem to recall Samantha claiming that civilian
casualties would be over 100,000. How would you like your crow, Sam?
I would also say that the media embedding experience in this war is an
unqualfied success. I think the primary benefit of this experience is
that media coverage of units helped improve troop attitudes toward
minimizing civilian casualties and treating enemy wounded and prisoners
well. The way in which the Iraqi military treated both categories is a
sharp contrast, given that they had no embedded media.
The focus on eliminating enemy leadership is also a departure from past
conflicts. In the past, it was seen as improper to target the officer
corps more closely than enlisted men, on the logic that the officers
were the only entities that kept the men behaving honorably and with
discipline. The problem with this war is that Iraqi officers were far
more likely to be forcing their men to behave dishonorably, with the
choice of being shot for refusing to do so.
That the Iraqi military, fedayeen and other combatants have been so
significantly eliminated, with fewer than 6,000 enemy POWs to date,
reflects this. We simply could not tolerate dishonorable behavior by
enemy combatants, but also enemy combatants had no choice, they were
going to die either fighting us or by their commanders own hands.
Future wars will be of two kinds, based on how lawfully the sides act.
One kind will have both sides behaving honorably, with weapons systems
designed to disable enemy weapons only. Combatant casualties will be in
the hundreds at most, and civilian casualties will be in the handful at
most. These sorts of wars I think will be few and far between, if at
all. If two sides are so willing to act honorably, they are far more
likely to resolve their problems diplomatically.
The other kind will have a despotic regime throwing respect for the laws
of war out the window, threatening execution for soldiers who do not
suicide themselves, violating all Geneva Conventions, and torturing and
executing captured enemy prisoners. The opposing side will cause very
few civilian casualties, but will have no compunction about decimating
enemy formations and will target the leadership cadres that are acting
so dishonorably.
As despotic regimes cease to exist, I think we will find a third kind
emerging, which might be tied in to Olympic-type contests of champions,
where points of conflict need to be resolved quickly but where diplomacy
has failed, and parties do not want a long dragged out trade war.
=====
Mike Lorrey
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
- Gen. John Stark
"Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell "Treason doth
never Prosper. What is the Reason? For if it Prosper, none Dare call it
Treason..." - Ovid
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