From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@yahoo.com)
Date: Mon Mar 31 2003 - 19:39:56 MST
--- Sean Kenny <seankenny@blueyonder.co.uk> wrote:>
> Most revealing of all was Murdoch's reference to the rationale for
> going to war, blatantly using the o-word.
> He went even further down this road in an interview the week before
> with America's Fortune magazine by forecasting a postwar economic
> boom. "Once it [Iraq] is behind us, the whole world will benefit
> from cheaper oil which will be a bigger stimulus than anything
> else."
>
> exactly how many human lives is this worth to him?
Money being a representation of human labor, and the average human life
being worth about $6.5 million, according to insurance actuaries (don't
know if this applies only to Americans or not), if the post-war economy
expands by $6.5 trillion more than it would have otherwise without
cheap oil, then that is worth 1,000,000 lives lost in this war for a
break even. If only 100,000 lives are lost, that is a 1000% return on
investment. If Iraqi lives are worth half that, economically, then it
is a 2000% ROI.
Considering my prior prescience with regard to oil prices in the war, I
will note that prices have crept upward with the present 'pause' period
preceding the upcoming Battle for Bagdad. This price represents
uncertainty over the outcome of this battle, as it seems some real SOBs
in the media and goverment are spreading FUD about the battle plan and
the expectations, or lack of, regarding the Fedeyeen resistance,
possibly specifically to push up these prices to enhance their
retirement portfolios.
I will predict that after this battle, oil prices will again drop
significantly, probably below $25, maybe below $22/bbl. They may creep
upward some more after that as mopping up operations continue,
especially if Saddam escapes from Bagdad, Osama-like, and if there
remains a significant amount of terrorism against westerners in Iraq
from Fedeyeen in hiding.
However, by this time next year, oil prices will be pushing $10/bbl as
Iraq, with the second largest oil reserves (and some say more than
Saudi Arabia), starts pumping overtime to pay for the reconstruction.
I'll note that one conservative muslim nation has just announced they
will be giving women the right to vote, starting to fulfill another of
my predictions, that our victory in Iraq will stimulate a flowering of
reform and liberty in the muslim world. I wonder why some anti-war
feminists here seem to think this a bad thing...
=====
Mike Lorrey
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
- Gen. John Stark
"Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell
"Treason doth never Prosper. What is the Reason?
For if it Prosper, none Dare call it Treason..." - Ovid
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