From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Fri Mar 28 2003 - 06:51:27 MST
On Thu, 2003-03-27 at 23:04, Hal Finney wrote:
>
> The problem with an epidemic is that it starts small and grows
> exponentially, so it is hard to judge how bad it will get. This one seems
> to be about as contagious as a cold, but with at least a 5% fatality rate.
> It remains to be seen whether these extensive quarantine measures will
> succeed in arresting the epidemic.
### Is it really 5%? We have to remember that the cases actually
diagnosed may be only a fraction of the total, there could be
subclinical or mild cases as well. Also, it is not clear yet what
percentage of the population is susceptible to the severe reaction,
requiring ventilator support - if all of us are, this could be a major
health problem, on the order of magnitude comparable to the influenza
pandemics in 1917-1918.
Somewhat more dangerous than driving and about as bad as smoking.
Rafal
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