Re:CLIMATE: Solar output increasing .05%/decade

From: Amara Graps (amara@amara.com)
Date: Tue Mar 25 2003 - 09:26:53 MST

  • Next message: Spudboy100@aol.com: "Re: CLIMATE: Solar output increasing .05%/decade"

    >http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/sun_output_030320.html

    It looks like the measurements are becoming yet
    more refined. No new breakthroughs, yet, though.

    Yes, it is already known (among solar physicists, anyway) that the variation
    in the sun's energy output has far more impact on our climate than
    the tiny increases of various chemicals. Eg. doubling the amount of
    CO2 in our atmosphere has the effect (on our climate) as increasing
    the solar irradiance by 0.1% more or less.

    But the global warming issues are very complicated. See Hoyt's
    work, for example:

    Empirical Determinations of the Greenhouse Effect
    http://users.erols.com/dhoyt1/annex5.htm

     From the article:
    > At the bottom, the timeline of the many
    > different datasets that contributed to this finding, from 1978 to
    > present.

    The climate change that started in the 60s ended 5 decades of unusually
    benign climate. Most long term climate "normals" were established in
    the 60s by analysis of the first half of the 20th century - so as a
    result there are often "100 year" storms, floods, droughts etc since
    the statistical basis was unrepresentative of the more normal
    natural variability. The message learned in the 1970s is still true,
    that the main change is to more variability.

    The scientists need to get past that '100-year' measurement bias, so
    it looks like we are almost there to know clearly some long-term
    solar effects.

    This older article might be of interest too:
    http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/damon.html

    -- 
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    Amara Graps, PhD             email: amara@amara.com
    Computational Physics        vita:  ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt
    Multiplex Answers            URL:   http://www.amara.com/
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    "If you postpone a pleasure long enough, it may  melt, spoil, die,
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