Re: MATH: Bayesian story problem

From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Mar 25 2003 - 07:24:32 MST

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    --- "Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" <sentience@pobox.com> wrote:
    > Here's a brainteaser I invented lately. Suppose you have a large
    > barrel containing a number of plastic eggs. Some eggs contain
    > pearls, the rest contain nothing. Some eggs are painted blue, the
    > rest are painted red. Suppose that 40% of the eggs are painted
    > blue, 5/13 of the eggs containing pearls are painted blue, and 20%
    > of the eggs are both empty and painted red. What is the
    > probability that an egg painted blue contains a pearl?

    The following are the relationships inferred in the above problem:

    .4E - (5/13)P = Eb
    Pr = P - (5/13)P
    Pb = (5/13)P
    .2E = Er
    .4E = Pr
    Pr + Pb + Eb + Er = E

    where:
    E = all eggs
    P = all pearled eggs
    Pr = red eggs with pearls
    Pb = blue eggs with pearls
    Eb = empty blue eggs
    Er = empty red eggs.

    The rest is left as an exercise for the reader...

    =====
    Mike Lorrey
    "Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
                                                         - Gen. John Stark
    "Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell
    "Treason doth never Prosper. What is the Reason?
    For if it Prosper, none Dare call it Treason..." - Ovid

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