From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Mar 25 2003 - 07:24:32 MST
--- "Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" <sentience@pobox.com> wrote:
> Here's a brainteaser I invented lately. Suppose you have a large
> barrel containing a number of plastic eggs. Some eggs contain
> pearls, the rest contain nothing. Some eggs are painted blue, the
> rest are painted red. Suppose that 40% of the eggs are painted
> blue, 5/13 of the eggs containing pearls are painted blue, and 20%
> of the eggs are both empty and painted red. What is the
> probability that an egg painted blue contains a pearl?
The following are the relationships inferred in the above problem:
.4E - (5/13)P = Eb
Pr = P - (5/13)P
Pb = (5/13)P
.2E = Er
.4E = Pr
Pr + Pb + Eb + Er = E
where:
E = all eggs
P = all pearled eggs
Pr = red eggs with pearls
Pb = blue eggs with pearls
Eb = empty blue eggs
Er = empty red eggs.
The rest is left as an exercise for the reader...
=====
Mike Lorrey
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
- Gen. John Stark
"Pacifists are Objectively Pro-Fascist." - George Orwell
"Treason doth never Prosper. What is the Reason?
For if it Prosper, none Dare call it Treason..." - Ovid
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