From: spike66 (spike66@attbi.com)
Date: Mon Mar 24 2003 - 23:35:18 MST
I get 5/8 or about 62.5%, but I used classic
methods not Baysian. Is that the right answer?
It doesn't agree with your check. {8-| spike
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
> Here's a brainteaser I invented lately. Suppose you have a large barrel
> containing a number of plastic eggs. Some eggs contain pearls, the rest
> contain nothing. Some eggs are painted blue, the rest are painted red.
> Suppose that 40% of the eggs are painted blue, 5/13 of the eggs
> containing pearls are painted blue, and 20% of the eggs are both empty
> and painted red. What is the probability that an egg painted blue
> contains a pearl?
>
> As a check on your results: The proportion of red eggs which are empty,
> divided by the proportion of all eggs containing pearls, is
> approximately .51. To use this information in the problem would, of
> course, be cheating.
>
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