Re: MATH: Bayesian story problem

From: spike66 (spike66@attbi.com)
Date: Mon Mar 24 2003 - 23:35:18 MST

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    I get 5/8 or about 62.5%, but I used classic
    methods not Baysian. Is that the right answer?
    It doesn't agree with your check. {8-| spike

    Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
    > Here's a brainteaser I invented lately. Suppose you have a large barrel
    > containing a number of plastic eggs. Some eggs contain pearls, the rest
    > contain nothing. Some eggs are painted blue, the rest are painted red.
    > Suppose that 40% of the eggs are painted blue, 5/13 of the eggs
    > containing pearls are painted blue, and 20% of the eggs are both empty
    > and painted red. What is the probability that an egg painted blue
    > contains a pearl?
    >
    > As a check on your results: The proportion of red eggs which are empty,
    > divided by the proportion of all eggs containing pearls, is
    > approximately .51. To use this information in the problem would, of
    > course, be cheating.
    >



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