From: alexboko@umich.edu
Date: Wed Mar 19 2003 - 18:59:30 MST
From: "Alex Future Bokov" <alexboko@umich.edu>
X-Mailer: YaBB
[quote from: Anders on 2003-03-17 at 02:58:18]
You mention http://www.hf.caltech.edu/hf/b3/scenarios/, and I think it
is a good example of what we have to do. If you examine the scenarios it
is very obvious (to us) that they totally ignore the possibilities so
dear to us. Instead these scenarios are variants of the standard futures
people usually think of (you will find variants of these scenarios again
and again in the future studies literature) - people are very much
trapped in a standard narrative of what the possibilities are (things go
on as usual, we revert to barbarism or we end up with a world state)
Actually, if I was constructing the most likely scenarios for the next 30-50
years (my projectable future window) mine would probably be like theirs and
ignore nanplague, nano-Santaclause, friendly AI, unfriendly AI. Or at least
encapsulate all of those scenarios into one "paradigm shifting technological
change" scenario.
When the paradigm-shifted one takes place, all bets are off. No matter what
you have planned, you're going to have to revise your plans at a frantic
pace to keep up with the data coming in. The best way to prepare for these
eventualities is just to be prepared for the general case-- put lots of money
into R&D, an informed populace, a stable geopolitical situation, as few
centers of concentrated authority as possible (to minimize the possibility of
abuse and cooptation).
I think one of their scenarios probably will happen first. If a crucial
technological threshold is passed soon enough, they will break out into one
of our scenarios. If we miss the boat, the world stays mired in one of their
scenarios until humanity dies by stagnation or starvation.
---- This message was posted by Alex Future Bokov to the Extropians 2003 board on ExI BBS. <http://www.extropy.org/bbs/index.php?board=67;action=display;threadid=55189>
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