From: Terry W. Colvin (fortean1@mindspring.com)
Date: Sat Mar 08 2003 - 21:38:32 MST
Pulitzer-winning Newsday reporter Laurie Garrett went to the World
Economic Summit in Davos, Switzerland this year and hung out with heads of
major world corporations and famous heads of state. Some blunt personal
commentary was sent to friends in a 2,000-word e-mail that ended up online
and is very worth reading.
A few thoroughly eye-opening excerpts follow, but just so you know, the
whole story of who she is and how the private e-mail became public is
here:
< http://research.yale.edu/lawmeme/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=938
And the full text of the e-mail is here:
http://www.topica.com/lists/psychohistory/read/message.html?mid=1711891071&sort=d&start=4389
Now, prepare to be astonished:
====
Overall, here is what I learned about the state of our world:
- I was in a dinner with heads of Saudi and German FBI, plus the foreign
minister of Afghanistan. They all said that at its peak Al Qaeda had
70,000 members. Only 10% of them were trained in terrorism -- the rest
were military recruits. Of that 7000, they say all but about 200 are dead
or in jail.
- But Al Qaeda, they say, is like a brand which has been heavily
franchised. And nobody knows how many unofficial franchises have been
spawned since 9/11.
- The global economy is in very very very very bad shape. Last year when
WEF met here in New York all I heard was, "Yeah, it's bad, but recovery is
right around the corner". This year "recovery" was a word never uttered.
Fear was palpable -- fear of enormous fiscal hysteria. The watchwords were
"deflation", "long term stagnation" and "collapse of the dollar". All of
this is without war.
- If the U.S. unilaterally goes to war, and it is anything short of a
quick surgical strike (lasting less than 30 days), the economists were all
predicting extreme economic gloom: falling dollar value, rising spot
market oil prices, the Fed pushing interest rates down towards zero with
resulting increase in national debt, severe trouble in all countries whose
currency is guaranteed agains the dollar (which is just about everybody
except the EU), a near cessation of all development and humanitarian
programs for poor countries. Very few economists or ministers of finance
predicted the world getting out of that economic funk for minimally
five-10 years, once the downward spiral ensues.
- Not surprisingly, the business community was in no mood to hear about a
war in Iraq. Except for diehard American Republicans, a few Brit Tories
and some Middle East folks the WEF was in a foul, angry anti-American
mood. Last year the WEF was a lovefest for America. This year the mood was
so ugly that it reminded me of what it felt like to be an American
overseas in the Reagan years. The rich -- whether they are French or
Chinese or just about anybody -- are livid about the Iraq crisis primarily
because they believe it will sink their financial fortunes.
...
- US unilateralism is seen as arrogant, bullyish. If the U.S. cannot
behave in partnership with its allies -- especially the Europeans -- it
risks not only political alliance but BUSINESS, as well. Company leaders
argued that they would rather not have to deal with US government
attitudes about all sorts of multilateral treaties (climate change,
intellectual property, rights of children, etc.) -- it's easier to just do
business in countries whose governments agree with yours. And it's
cheaper, in the long run, because the regulatory envornments match. War
against Iraq is seen as just another example of the unilateralism.
- For a minority of the participants there was another layer of
AntiAmericanism that focused on moralisms and religion. I often heard
delegates complain that the US "opposes the rights of children", because
we block all treaties and UN efforts that would support sex education and
condom access for children and teens. They spoke of sex education as a
"right". Similarly, there was a decidedly mixed feeling about Ashcroft,
who addressed the conference. I attended a small lunch with Ashcroft, and
observed Ralph Reed and other prominent Christian fundamentalists working
the room and bowing their heads before eating. The rest of the world's
elite finds this American Christian behavior at least as uncomfortable as
it does Moslem or Hindu fundamentalist behavior. They find it awkward
every time a US representative refers to "faith-based" programs. It's
different from how it makes non-Christian Americans feel -- these folks
experience it as downright embarrassing.
- When Colin Powell gave the speech of his life, trying to win over the
nonAmerican delegates, the sharpest attack on his comments came not from
Amnesty International or some Islamic representative -- it came from the
head of the largest bank in the Netherlands!
I learned that the only economy about which there is much enthusiasm is
China, which was responsible for 77% of the global GDP growth in 2002. But
the honcho of the Bank of China, Zhu Min, said that fantastic growth could
slow to a crawl if China cannot solve its rural/urban problem. Currently
400 million Chinese are urbanites, and their average income is 16 times
that of the 900 million rural residents. Zhu argued China must urbanize
nearly a billion people in ten years!
I learned that the US economy is the primary drag on the global economy,
and only a handful of nations have sufficient internal growth to thrive
when the US is stagnating.
-- Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1@mindspring.com > Alternate: < fortean1@msn.com > Home Page: < http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Stargate/8958/index.html > Sites: * Fortean Times * Mystic's Haven * TLCB * U.S. Message Text Formatting (USMTF) Program ------------ Member: Thailand-Laos-Cambodia Brotherhood (TLCB) Mailing List TLCB Web Site: < http://www.tlc-brotherhood.org >[Vietnam veterans, Allies, CIA/NSA, and "steenkeen" contractors are welcome.]
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