RE: Why will we reach the singularity?

From: Joao Magalhaes (joao.magalhaes@fundp.ac.be)
Date: Tue Mar 04 2003 - 08:59:15 MST

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    Hi!

    At 12:54 03-03-2003 -0800, you wrote:
    >*But* the technology we need to do [1] does exist *now* (you'll just have
    >to trust me on this). Turning it into something "most" people (e.g. molecular
    >biologists) can use is a 3-5 year development effort. Its a much less
    >difficult problem than Apollo was -- by several orders of magnitude.
    >(Now taking those tools and turning them into cures for aging -- that
    >I view as being perhaps larger than Apollo -- *but* not that much larger.)

    Admittedly, I don't know what you are doing in Robiobotics. Yet my first
    reaction regarding whole genome engineering--which I'm not even sure I know
    what it is--and nanotech is somewhat skeptical. Although you didn't like it
    much, I think HIV is a good example. HIV is a small piece of genetic code
    whose activities disrupt human physiology to the point of killing us. Yet
    it is extrinsic to the human genome. Unlike aging, which, IMHO, results
    from errors in the genome that are intrinsic to human beings, defining
    "errors" in a very wide sense--from inconsistencies in DNA repair or
    replication to anything that may corrupt the genetic program. Although the
    breakthroughs on fighting HIV have been much superior to breakthroughs in
    aging research, the difficulty in fighting HIV proves that we don't
    understand as much about biology as we think we do--sure, I know about
    HIV's adaptability, but even so have in mind that a 10,000 nucleotides
    sequence continues to elude medical science. This to say that when I read
    about nanotech, I can't help stop feeling that our current level of
    knowledge regarding molecular biology and genetics is still very far off
    from what we need to apply nanotech. If we can't cope with the 10,000
    nucleotides of HIV, if we're still surprised that a prion can change the
    conformation of normal proteins and cause mad cow disease, how can we
    expect to have molecular assemblers fixing aging? I'm pretty sure that
    we'll have to fix a lot more than 10,000 nucleotides to fix aging. In
    addition, what we have to fix in aging will be written in the DNA of every
    cell of my body. I still believe it's possible and I will continue working
    on aging--the other option is death. Yet I want to avoid overoptimism and
    make people think of the problems that we will face. I feel this will
    increase the chances of us solving aging within a reasonable timescale.

    >Am not sure at this time, I was at the one in AU but not the one that I think
    >was in Korea. Would like to get to the UK but am not sure I can make it
    >happen.
    >But Aubrey is putting together a very good program -- you should go if you
    >have
    >the opportunity.

    Well, I should go--unless I'm really late in my thesis. I would sure like
    to meet you.

    All the best.

    Joao Magalhaes (joao.magalhaes@fundp.ac.be)

    Website on Aging: http://www.senescence.info
    Reason's Triumph: http://www.jpreason.com



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