From: nanowave (nanowave@shaw.ca)
Date: Sat Mar 01 2003 - 17:14:29 MST
Joao Magalhaes writes:
>I've been wondering on why are transhumanists so confident that we will
>reach the singularity. I'm about to finish my Ph.D. on the biology
>of aging
>and I've been thinking about the developments of the past few years, not
>just on aging but in other areas too. In truth, I'm disappointed with
>what's being done and I want to know why are transhumanists so
>confident we
>will reach the singularity. For instance, astrophysics and space
>exploration have been stagnating. It's been 30 years since a man walked on
>the moon and, though I'm not an expert, I don't see how our recent models
>of the universe--e.g. superstring theory--are more likely to be right than
>the models from Einstein's time. It's true breakthroughs have been made in
>biology and medicine, such as the Human Genome Project, but, shit, we
>haven't even cured AIDS, how can we expect to cure aging anytime soon?
>Also, I'm disappointed with the way science is made in the academia with
>personal egos rising above finding the mechanisms of aging. If we want to
>cure aging, we need to work together, but not many do that.
>
>In the end, I would say that the basis for the singularity is Moore's law,
>for it allows not only faster computers but also developments in DNA
>sequencing and a host of other possibilities. Yet I'm sure there are
>physical limits for Moore's law. When will we reach them? Can you be sure
>Moore's law will continue for long enough to develop a smarter-than-man
>artificial intelligence?
>
>When I found transhumanism, already several years ago, I thought it set an
>optimistic but plausible scenario. Now, I'm starting to wonder if
>we're not
>just another cult willing to sacrifice reality towards a fairer image of
>the world. Please prove me wrong. Or does anyone here thinks we're
>descendant from aliens?
Ok I'll take a stab at this.
Picture a small plastic funnel - the type you might use to get salt into the
hole in the bottom of a salt shaker. Now turn the funnel on its side, forget
about the shaker, and increase the funnel's overall dimensions by a factor
of, say 30 - a great big honking plastic funnel you now have there.
Now go outside and mount it securely on the handlebars of your motorcycle
with the big end facing forward and the narrow end perfectly aligned with
your forehead when you're seated on the bike - you might want to cut a small
slot just below the neck of the funnel so you can see where you're going.
Got it? Now stretch your mind a bit here and imagine that all information -
all facts, memes, ideas, methods, books, websites, theories, proofs etc. can
be represented as individual winged insects. Thus that fly over there is a
method for making excellent chocolate chip cookies, that mosquito - a plan
for a nuclear reactor core, that moth - the correct tire pressure for a
Formula One race car running on concrete at 97 degrees F surface
temperature, etc.
If you have a problem with conceptualizing a nuclear reactor as a single
mosquito, then pretend the mosquito's cells represent all the sub-bits of
information which go into making a device of that complexity. Forget about
scale here, it's not at all essential to the point I'm trying to make. The
purpose of the experiment is to have the bugs enter the funnel and slam
directly into your brain to thereby become part of your acquired knowledge
base.
Now hop on this monstrous vehicle you have created and let's go cruising. I
suppose we'll have to assume you already have enough "bugs" in your head to
balance and operate the vehicle safely. Before you leave your driveway, a
ladybug enters the funnel and you acquire the good sense to check the street
for oncoming traffic.
Now suppose I set no other restrictions besides allowing *one thousand gas
fill-ups* for your entire journey and all the bugs you catch must be trapped
via your own personal funnel (i.e. no stopping in at that smelly Mexican
flesh-eating fly hatchery etc.)
Ok, so if you want to increase your overall intelligence, there are a number
of variables that might be considered.
1. You might choose to return home and increase the size of your funnel -
I'll allow that!
2. You might drive faster to increase your rate of capture - here's a free
radar detector.
3. You might plan your journey so as to pass by as many swamps, garbage
dumps, grassy fields etc. as possible.
4. Or you might turn on your headlight and drive around only at dusk or
early in the morning in late spring - take all the time you need.
So here are my conclusions:
Fact: You will never catch all the bugs, or even make a dent in the total
the bug population.
Fact: You will never know the information contained in the bugs you missed.
Fact: Even though you didn't notice any other Funnel Riders along the way,
you don't know what bugs other people might be catching.
Fact: You haven't read the Age of Spiritual Machines carefully enough, or
have utterly failed to grasp the significance of the "Law of Accelerating
Returns".
Russell Evermore
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