RE: Why will we reach the singularity?

From: Reason (reason@exratio.com)
Date: Sat Mar 01 2003 - 14:45:33 MST

  • Next message: Reason: "RE: [wta-talk] more stupid legislative tricks to bring on early death, disability and suffering"

    > [mailto:owner-extropians@extropy.org]On Behalf Of Joao Magalhaes

    > I've been wondering on why are transhumanists so confident that we will
    > reach the singularity. I'm about to finish my Ph.D. on the
    > biology of aging
    > and I've been thinking about the developments of the past few years, not
    > just on aging but in other areas too. In truth, I'm disappointed with
    > what's being done and I want to know why are transhumanists so
    > confident we
    > will reach the singularity. For instance, astrophysics and space
    > exploration have been stagnating. It's been 30 years since a man
    > walked on
    > the moon and, though I'm not an expert, I don't see how our recent models
    > of the universe--e.g. superstring theory--are more likely to be
    > right than
    > the models from Einstein's time. It's true breakthroughs have
    > been made in
    > biology and medicine, such as the Human Genome Project, but, shit, we
    > haven't even cured AIDS, how can we expect to cure aging anytime soon?

    See my other post on this point. We need to increase funding by managing,
    growing and presenting demand for improvements in real anti-aging medicine.
    Loud, widespread demand indicates a future market to the money men. They
    then release the floodgates of funding.

    Realistically, assuming that the US and more governments manage not to shut
    down all avenues of anti-aging research, we're looking at minor anti-aging
    medical technologies becoming available in ten years, and getting to the
    level at which AIDS medicines are now in 20-30 years. This is conditional on
    us winning the war of memes with the deathist bioethicists. If they convince
    the world that no-one should have anti-aging technology, that it's immoral
    and unimportant, that it will be legislated against, then the markets will
    never come into being. The research will never happen.

    > Also, I'm disappointed with the way science is made in the academia with
    > personal egos rising above finding the mechanisms of aging. If we want to
    > cure aging, we need to work together, but not many do that.

    This is the way science always works in a young field. The funding game is
    competitive. There isn't enough funding to create larger teams that work in
    competition with one another. The team is generally 1 or 2 people at the
    moment, so individual egos are much less constrained. So I see the problem
    as being a lack of funding, rather than a failing of human nature.

    Reason
    http://www.exratio.com/



    This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Mar 01 2003 - 14:45:28 MST