Anyone know the source of this old teaser? (was Skepticism about Game Theory (was IRAQ sort of...)

From: Brett Paatsch (paatschb@ocean.com.au)
Date: Tue Feb 25 2003 - 04:01:36 MST

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    It goes like this.....

    ------------------------------------------------------

    A traveller "X" wants to get to St Ives and arrives at a T intersection
    (see Fig A. below) at which stand two "custodians of the pass"
    "O" and "O".

    (path 1) <-----------------------------> (path 2)
                                         O | O
                         (custodian C1) | (custodian C2)
                                                  |
                                                  |
                                                 X (the traveller)

    (Fig. A.)
    [How things *look* to traveller X approaching the T intersection
    with two "custodians" and two possible paths. ]

    Traveller X has been reliable informed that the correct path
    to St Ives can be taken by either turning left or turning right
    but he has not been told which.

    Traveller X knows that one of the custodians of the pass
    will always respond to questions with a lie and the other
    will always respond with the truth. Both of these custodians
    know each other well and both know the actual way to
    St. Ives. T does not know which custodian is the liar and
    which is the truth teller.

    He is permitted only one question to one of them to determine
    the way to St Ives. But one question is enough.

    What is the question?.

    (answer at bottom of the post just in case anyone doesn't
    know and wants to try and work it out themselves)

    Fig B. Shows the truth that Traveller X can't "see".

    (path 1 is .... ( path 2 is....
    the way to St. Ives) <---------- ---------> NOT the way)
                                            O | O
       (C1 always tells the truth) | (C2 always lies)
                                                   |
                                                  X

    Figure B.
    -----------------

    [The answer:]

    Traveller X can ask either custodian "which way would
    he (the other custodian) have told me to go if I had
    asked him the way to St Ives.

    Then Traveller X knows the way is the opposite.

    Traveller X still does not know if he spoke to the liar
    or the truth teller and he doesn't care as he is already
    on his way to St Ives.

    -----------

    Lee is quite reasonably sceptical about the use of the
    term "game theory" in relation to the Iraqi crisis.

    I applaud that scepticism, and if I can explain my "reasoning",
    without losing too much time I'd like to give it a shot. In
    some ways its easier to just give "the answers" and not "the
    method". The answers should be testable, and challengeable
    themselves even if the method is not. (The first "answer" was
    that Bush should approach Chirac and ask him to come
    up with a standard of proof to be applied generally by the
    Security Council in order to decide whether a particular
    go-to-war decision was warranted. This answer has the
    appeal of preserving the UN and affixing accountability for
    failure and of making poor faith or poor judgement
    apparent - I think).

    I don't know if the above problem is really about "game
    theory" per se. But the phenomenon that is that problem and
    Axelrods "discovery" that the principles of tit for tat are
    teachable and once learnt constitute a strategy that cannot be
    beaten in iterative prisoners games even by those who know
    they are playing against it has certainly influenced my sense
    that the current Iraq crisis and the "standoff" within the UN
    is rationally resolvable despite human passions.

    I don't know that what I am actually doing is game theory with
    capital letters. I think what I am doing is trying to come up with
    a set of rules or a procedure which is guaranteed to give the best
    possible outcome given certain facts and given that those facts
    can be presented to free agents who have choice but who are
    bounded to act in the social world in only finite and limited ways.

    Perhaps rather than game theory I am doing a sort of transaction
    analysis.

    Maybe I'm just being a w**ker. But if so I am not being so
    knowingly.

    Regards,
    Brett



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