From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@tsoft.com)
Date: Sun Feb 16 2003 - 20:06:54 MST
Dan writes
> > Civilizations that
> > reach approximately our level of achievement, which
> > takes merely a million years from the animal state,
> > quickly undergo some sort of singularity and expand
> > to encompass all solar systems in their galaxy. This
> > requires far less than one additional million years.
> > So all told, we are talking about it taking less than
> > two million years for an animal to conquer a galaxy.
>
> I'm not so sure I consider it silly. You are accepting one of the
> premises of May's argument: any two civilizations would eventually
> become rivals for the same resources.
Sorry, I'm recalling the conclusions of the argument
without providing all the reasons. So suppose that
we shortly (on geological time scales) begin expanding
the influence of our singularity at the speed of light.
(When seen from a distance, this is the inevitable
speed, because if thousands or millions of spaceships
/ Von Neumann probes are in motion at the same time,
the speed of the overall effect is determined by the
arrival time of the longest voyages.)
If there are other civilizations in the visible universe,
then they'll have their own wave front expanding at the
speed of light, and yes, there will be a collision. But
there will be no advance notice of the meeting. Moreover,
the wave front itself will be at the stage of technological
development that characterized the beginning stages of
expansion, not the stage meanwhile reached at the centers.
So the collision will be on approximately equal terms.
> one can't assume another civilization will want coexistence
> even if yours wants it. The next point to be made would be
> how does one prevent oneself from being destroyed or overcome.
> May believes nomadism combined with stealth would be the answer.
I think that each side would receive support---i.e., more
advanced technology---from the direction of its own center.
Whether the conflict is peaceful or warlike undoubtedly
depends on the profitability of trade at the boundary.
Given nanotech, how is stealth possible? Why wouldn't
my local civilization expand to use every single last
asteroid in the neighborhood? Certainly, no solar system
will escape notice. The growth of the singularity will
be geometric, both locally and globally.
> I also think that absent centralized control -- as would happen with a
> civilization expanding into space -- there would be some chatter and
> we'd have picked it up by now if they were such a civilization active in
> our galaxy. So, again, I accept the null hypothesis here.
All the ideas I've just written are pretty old; at least I
entertained them fifteen years ago. A few times I've even
started SF stories, e.g. "The Alien Advent" to depict what
might happen if the expanding wave front of a civilization
were to reach here right now. (But it's the usual first
contact type story, set only slightly differently.)
You don't "pick up any chatter" until the civilization is
almost upon you. A first sign in my story was when astronomers
noticed a certain galaxy turning red (as its Dyson spheres
went up). From then, it was merely a short time before the
expanding civilization arrived, just behind their photons.
Lee
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