RE: The Buzz in Baghdad

From: Lee Corbin (lcorbin@tsoft.com)
Date: Sun Feb 16 2003 - 14:37:20 MST

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    Damien writes

    > Yes, it's just like those awful anti-nuclear marches. All the so-called
    > "peace" demonstrators---whose main effect was to increase the likelihood of
    > war--helped by their protests (which were greeted in the streets of Moscow
    > with the greatest elation) to bring about the ruinous exchange in 1989 when
    > the Soviet Union nuked the USA and vice versa.
    > Oh no, wait.

    I understand your sarcasm, and do grant the point that
    you are trying to make. Indeed, the peace protests in
    the U.S. in the 1980's helped permit Soviet leaders to
    take more chances---but this was perhaps not so great
    an effect as that they evidently trusted Reagan and
    Bush not to take advantage of their dissolution.
    Still, you are entirely correct that the demonstrations
    themselves had a salutary outcome.

    At least in this universe. Recall the high chance that
    some Soviet generals were not going to put up with an
    end to their Soviet Union. Signs of weakness in the
    West motivated them to take a strong line. Had we
    someone besides Reagan/Bush, it raises the probability
    that the Soviet hard-liners could have convinced the
    others that conquest of Western Europe was one way out
    of the mess.

    But I find it interesting and significant that you
    didn't lay a glove on *my* points:

    > > The news [of western protests] is greeted with the
    > > greatest elation by the government and Mr. Hussein.
    >
    > > we can expect that any thoughts Saddam Hussein has of
    > > abdicating or to destroying his WMD are put on hold.
    > > He'll naturally grasp at whatever straws are offered,
    > > and all the so-called "peace" demonstrators---whose main
    > > effect is to increase the likelihood of war...
    > > [Vietnam protesters significantly aided what proved to
    > > be a murderous regime.]

    I failed to mention his alternative hope that NATO
    discord can save him. France and Germany are acting
    in a most uncooperatively. France's motive is apparently
    financial (Saddam owes them so many billions), but I
    guess that Schroeder is just reflecting public opinion,
    and seems to have a better reputation than Chirac.

    Lee



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