From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Sat Feb 15 2003 - 15:19:24 MST
On Sat, 15 Feb 2003, Technotranscendence (Daniel) forwarded this
piece from Starship_Forum, I'm responding to both groups.
> Dennis May determinism@hotmail.com wrote (to Starship_Forum):
> Weapons of mass destruction change everything.
> In space, the scale of mass destruction grows
> without bound.
No it doesn't. There are "effective" limits on everything.
Even the most energetic events in space such as stellar
collisions or gamma ray bursts have effective ranges.
If they didn't we would have been wiped out long ago.
See the Nov. 2002 issue of Scientific American, the
article "When Stars Collide" for further discussion.
> In space, the family truckster could be a kinetic
> energy WoMD by its very nature. The power plant
> to run farms could be a dual use producer of
> fissionable materials for atomic weapons.
I don't understand where you are obtaining the energy from.
It sounds like you are planning on breeding elements lighter
than uranium into uranium or other higher MW elements that
are capable of fission. The most readily available power
sources for this are light energy from a star (fusion) and
local fusion reactors. This seems like it will be a very
inefficient process.
> Mining equipment could steer a large rock down a
> gravitational well and destroy whole civilizations.
Not any "intelligent" civilization. An intelligent
civilization where individuals seek to live indefinitely
has to adopt a form of a distributed replicated intelligence.
(I pointed this out at the Extro 3 conference in 1997).
This thought vector subsequently led to the design civilizations
spanning solar system sized scales (e.g. Matrioshka Brains). The
size limits for Matrioshka Brain civilizations powered by sol type
(G) stars are around 3 light years in diameter. Hurling an
asteroid or a comet at such a civilization isn't going dent
its capacities even slightly, though it might annoy it
(which is probably *not* a good idea).
> How can space tyrants disarm a populace when dual
> use includes WoMD capabilities?
This is still thinking too much along the lines of
primitive human space travel. Things are quite
different when one takes ones entire star system
on the journey.
> The next question is how to defend against
> individuals and terror groups wielding these
> same common industrial WoMD.
Easy -- distributed, replicated intelligence. The actions
of individuals or terror groups is pointless if they cannot
destroy "all" of you. All they do by injuring part of you
is annoy you. And as Khan observed, "Revenge is a dish
best served cold".
> Space societies, including Earth bound societies,
> will have to adapt to these changes or be wiped out.
> WoMD are getting cheaper and cheaper. With an
> increasingly wealthy society their cost will become
> trivial and the knowledge of WoMD common.
The WoMD paths do not (to a large extent) drive this.
The natural hazard function (sooner or later you will
be in the wrong place at the wrong time) drives it.
If you expect to extend your longevity to stellar
time scales you simply have to become a distributed
replicated intelligence. (The only alternate path
that might be feasible is for an individual/civilization
to leave for intergalactic space where the hazard function
may be much lower.)
> It has to change the arrangement of human societies.
> Aliens will have the same problem - hence my solution
> to the Fermi Paradox - only those who hide live in
> the long run.
Perhaps true "in the long run". But the universe has
not reached the point where there are resource shortages
that would tend to promote interstellar warfare. For now
there are lots of resources to supply the development of
multiple advanced civilizations.
> SETI's theory is to look for local loud-
> mouths living contrary to this military model. They
> might eventually find a loudmouth, an accidental signal,
> or a lure designed to expose other civilizations. We
> should expect these to be rare give the implications
> of WoMD.
The "implications of WoMD" have little or nothing to do
with whether civilizations "announce" themselves to their
local region of space or their galaxy. All but the most
advanced civilizations must generate heat at detectable
levels. Any civilization with advanced observational
capabilities will know where you are and what your
development (energy) level is unless you choose to
live within a dust cloud. That will significantly
limit your ability to view other civilizations and
send out moderately high speed interstellar probes.
Advanced civilizations care little about our current WoMD.
They do care about nearby star collisions or GRB and neutron
stars or black holes being hurled in their direction. But
such events require a lot of planning and energy and can
probably be avoided by a civilization which is relatively
alert.
Robert
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