RE: Fuel Efficient Cars (was Oil Economics)

From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Thu Feb 13 2003 - 15:55:08 MST

  • Next message: Rafal Smigrodzki: "RE: Where the I is"

    owner-extropians@extropy.org wrote:
    > Mon Feb 10, 2003 10:22 am Mike Lorrey wrote:
    >> Actually, since the US road death toll has been DROPPING as a
    >> percentage for a number of years,
    >
    > The figures we have been discussing are the total numbers of traffic
    > deaths, which have been generally reducing in the OECD countries over
    > the last ten years. But *not* in the USA.
    >
    > The USA road deaths figures for 1991-2001 are:
    > 1991 41,462
    > 1992 39,236
    > 1993 40,150
    > 1994 40,716
    > 1995 41,817
    > 1996 42,065
    > 1997 42,013
    > 1998 41,501
    > 1999 41,717
    > 2000 41,821 = 15.2 per 100000 population
    > 2001 42,116
    > 2002 not available yet
    >
    > from http://www.oecd.org

    ### The data you quote are not telling the whole story. What matters is the
    fatality rate per mile driven (assuming that drivers drive without being
    coerced). It turns out that the fatality rate in the US is 9.5 fatalities
    per billion kilometers driven which is less than half of the value for
    Greece, within the statistical variation level (random drift) of countries
    like Norway (9.6), and below the values for Germany (12.0), Australia (10.1)
    and the majority of developed countries listed in the same database source
    you quoted (http://www.bast.de/htdocs/fachthemen/irtad//english/we2.html).

    ---------------------
    >
    > There is a bit of fluctuation here, but the trend looks slightly
    > upwards, or level, to me. Almost every other OECD country has
    > succeeded in substantially reducing road deaths over the same period.
    > If the USA had achieved the same reductions as Canada, Australia or
    > UK, then there would have been about 15,000 fewer deaths in year 2000
    > in USA.
    >
    > You can play around with percentages of cars / population, miles
    > driven, journeys made, etc. if you like, but the USA is virtually the
    > only OECD country not currently reducing the death toll on its roads.

    ### As indicated above, this death toll is already among the lowest in the
    world.
    -------------------------
    >
    > Highest death rates in midsize sports cars: The vehicles with the
    > highest death rates are all sports cars -- the Chevrolet Camaro,
    > Camaro convertible, and Pontiac Firebird. These three models have
    > very high death rates in single-vehicle crashes, and this has been
    > true model year after model year (see Status Report, Oct. 9, 1996).
    > The single-vehicle death rates, including high rollover rates despite
    > low centers of gravity, reflect both the performance capabilities of
    > the sports cars and the risk-taking characteristics of many of their
    > drivers.

    ### Apparently, large American cars are safer, even with the occasional
    Camaro driver meeting an untimely death.

    In the last few years, as I am getting older, I reduced the speeds I drive
    in my Camaro, and hope not to contribute to this statistic.

    Rafal



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