Re: Cosmology Question

From: avatar (avatar@renegadeclothing.com.au)
Date: Tue Feb 11 2003 - 01:32:39 MST

  • Next message: Max M: "Re: Parallel Universes"

    > From: avatar [mailto:avatar@renegadeclothing.com.au]
    > > Everything indicates a FASI or other SI will discover most of
    > > the physics of the this-universe underlying-TOE in 2 decades,
    > > possibly with final refinements in the decades following,
    > > depending on the Fermi Paradox.
    >
    > Really? I'm skeptical. What evidence do you have to support this
    > assertion?
    >
    > cheers,
    > mez

    There's not much point debating too much, there are those who will
    upload (it's possible) and there's those who will augment (it's possible).
    Some just believe continuity is important, some don't. Atomic/molecular
    level software duplication is something that hasn't happened before with
    sentient beings. Augmentation has only been of the very lowest order
    (surgigal procedures).

    Similarly with the Singularity. As an historian by training, I recognize the
    Singularity in action. At a timeframe of 100,000 years it is unmistakeable.

    I base my believes on Drexler's assertion that engineering and software
    programming nano-supercomputing will be available about the time that
    assemblers are or before [eliminating software drag]. Also, I believe that
    an AI will be inherently more likely to achieve self-directed change because
    of its structure and the fact that this process will be inbuilt into it by humans.
    Augmented human SI is also possible but slower to be achieved.

    A FASI will be more likely to achieve a TOE-physics (underlying structure of
    this unvierse) because it can assimilate information faster and from more sources
    and cross-relate thought experiments.

    But if you believe that the various effects linked to Moore's law and population
    growth and AI development and assembler tech and bush robot possiblities and
    so on are all going to happen in 50 years or 80, does this really make any
    practical difference beyond preparing people? These things (TOE etc.) can be
    taken as fixed and culture will still rumble forward. People are people whether
    they can talk to a million colleagues or ten or one. The only thing that superintelligence
    should bring is greater awareness of our common brotherhood.

    Interim longevity boosting/appearance enhancement will be possible in a dozen years,
    certainly sufficient to last us to the Singularity.

    Note: I myself believe the Singularity is not full achieved locally until about 2350, but
    that it's bulk occurs in just over 2 decades from now. That is, knowledge precedes full
    activation. This delay may also be due to ethical concerns and individual rights.

    Avatar



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