From: Kai Becker (kmb@kai-m-becker.de)
Date: Sat Feb 01 2003 - 09:59:38 MST
Am Samstag, 1. Februar 2003 15:17 schrieb WS:
> Peace and war are very complex matter.
Indeed. Mostly because it's not a 1:1 game like chess (or WWII in
Europe). And most regions are so complex with respect to ethnics,
politican and monetary interests, that as soon one starts to get
involved, risks to become a target himself.
> Another analogy: Jews in WWII and now are in the same situation! When
> US/West will not act Saddam will do the Second Holocaust. You doubt
> about it?
Yes I doubt about it, as far as Iraq and Saddam are concerned. He
currently has nothing to win with a war. Every open aggression would
immediately bring up the coalition of 90/91 again. It's therfore much
wiser for him to play as dead and innocent as he does. If there's one
thing he's an expert in, it is to keep his position, even if an
international arm invades his country. (I'd still like to know why the
last US-invasion was stopped so sonn. Can anybody enlighten me on this?)
And Saddam simply has no business with Israel. He isn't a fanatic muslim
either, but has violently destroyed every political and religious
opposition, especially the religious groups. That's why bin Ladin will
most probably neither find shelter nor help in Iraq, and will probably
not send Al-Quaida to help Saddam.
Saddam _may_ have B or C weapons (while his army has only 1/3 of its
strength after the last gulf war). What could he probably do with them?
Use them? Against whom? If such an attack could be traced back to him, he
would risk the total destruction of his system, his family, his wealth.
IMO he'd only use WMDs (which means B or C, because even the US hasn't
the slightest evidence of a nuclear programme in Iraq) when he has
nothing left to lose, i.e. when invading military knocks on his palace
doors.
It could be much more sensible, to send many more (hundreds, thousands)
inspectors, use every information available, satellites, spy planes,
drones, whatever, and at the same time support political alternatives and
spread the news into Iraq. Prepare the grounds, sort out the complex
political system, then finally give the system the last push over the
brink to fall into a new stable position.
A military action in the current situation will only mess up the whole
region and make it much more difficult to keep the situation under
control.
> We should be proactiv, help to build democracy in the muslim world
> and China, reconstruct UN towards World Republic, etc. Peace is
> possible among democratic states.
I totally agree. But I am also more than sceptical, that the current US
administrations serves well as the spearhead of international law, mutual
respect and freedom and democracy for all people. I rather suspect, that
the current regime would prefer a totally US controlled world politics,
if someway possible.
Kai
--
== Kai M. Becker == kmb@cameron.kn-bremen.de == Bremen, Germany ==
"Any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficiently advanced"
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sun Feb 02 2003 - 21:26:09 MST