From: Ramez Naam (mez@apexnano.com)
Date: Fri Jan 31 2003 - 00:08:07 MST
From: Lee Corbin [mailto:lcorbin@tsoft.com]
> So you say that you use natural frequencies (e.g. "eight in
> ten") rather than using probabilities ".8" or "80%", and you
> believe that this affects your thinking?
My understanding of this research is that by frequencies they mean
"once every 10 years" as opposed to "10% chance per year". Obviously
this is easier to express with low probabilities / frequencies. I
suspect that with a scenario like "eight in every ten people" vs. "80%
of all people" the effect shrinks, as the frequency formulation of the
problem rises in complexity.
> I have been very interested in probability and probability
> problems for more decades than is pleasant to contemplate. I
> would have supposed that for me there could be no possible
> difference. But if it's really true that there is a
> difference, I naturally would like to change my mental habits.
>
> Do you think that this holds also for people used to
> probability problems?
The general finding that humans understand frequencies better than
probabilities is a few years old. If I recall it correctly, there was
still a very noticeable effect even among those who had a fair bit of
experience with statistics, though it was smaller among that
population than the general public.
cheers,
mez
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