From: Spudboy100@aol.com
Date: Sat Jan 25 2003 - 21:41:17 MST
In a message dated 1/25/2003 6:36:12 PM Eastern Standard Time,
bradbury@aeiveos.com writes:
Robert Bradury Opined:
>>If you think Islamic Militancy is the primary problem we face then your
compass has a magnet on the bottom. No doubt it is certainly a major
problem,
but I'd put aging, AIDS, water resources, esp. in the mideast, and several
other topics that I have mentioned in other posts as being equal to this
problem or even more important.<<
You may choose to focus on Extropian issues, but when history comes a
calling, it may not be the issues that motivate and modify. People are
killing and dying for issues outside the Extropian agenda, and this is the
world that is, not the world as list member would have it. Issues like AIDS
and water resources can be ameliorated by technical developments and
government programs.
<<I know this -- that it seems very unlikely that the Mongolians are going
to help us with aging, hunger/starvation (in fact they are starving
themselves this winter), AIDS or many of the other problems we as
extropians face long before one deals with the loss of 3000 lives
in downtown Manhattan.>>
We can do something about Islamist terrors orgs, and that is, knock the pins
out from under them. The preferred way (my way) is to produce petroleum that
is emphatically not under the control of Islamist states. The second method
is military invasion. I suspect that one reason Iraq is getting targeting is
not only their complicity in Jihadi movements, but the leverage gained when
the Oil falls under American control. It potentially cuts into the Saudi
treasury, and gives a warning to such countries that someone is watching.
<<Wrestling with only one risk to humanity, i.e. wahabbism, seems to
fail the "rational thinking" test. You have to be able to stack
up the wahabbism risk with the asteroid risk with the gamma ray
burst risk with the breakout of an amoral AI in the Kazaa network risk>>
My guesses on these risks follow:
1. Gamma Ray burster destroying all life 0.01% per 100 years
2. Asteroid smackdown 0.04% per 100 years
3. Jihadi Muslims causing a ecomomic depression with a nuclear strike
33% per 10 years
4. Jihadi Muslims causing the dissolution of the United States via a terror
attack
or coordinated attacks on data, and power facilities
20% per 10
years
5. Chance that the PRC (China) will initiate a nuclear conflagration
6% per 10 years
6. Chance that Russia will initiate a nuclear conflagration for any reason
1.5% per 10
years
<<You (we?) have to figure out ways to have some confidence that someone
somewhere is "on top of" that risk -- and then we need to learn to
be comfortable that we have good, talented, responsible people on
top of said risk and trust they are going to do the best job they
can do. If we cannot do that then I'd better go start riding
Roller Coasters in an attempt to increase my fun quotient before
my hazard function hits the wall (i.e. maximize my potential for
some fun before the dust catches up with me).
Robert>>
Try Peter Gale at the University of Pennsylvania. He first predicted that the
Pentagon, the Twin Towers, would be attacked by Islamist-inspired guerillas.
He attempted to warn the FAA, and they dismissed the threat as unpredictable;
such as a meteor strike. But do have fun on those coasters, I hear Six Flags
will be opening in just 4 months, I am sure they will save you a seat ;-)
-Mitch
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