Re: Supernovas less risky

From: Anders Sandberg (asa@nada.kth.se)
Date: Wed Jan 22 2003 - 08:36:04 MST


On Wed, Jan 22, 2003 at 08:10:36AM -0500, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:
> Anders Sandberg wrote:
> >Some good news:
> >
> >http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/01/030122072843.htm
> >
> >Scientists at NASA and Kansas University have determined that the
> >supernova would need to be within 26 light years from Earth to
> >significantly damage the ozone layer and allow cancer-causing ultraviolet
> >radiation to saturate the Earth's surface.
> >
> >*One* thing less to worry about.
>
> No, this is *poor* news, because it eliminates one of the *less* forboding
> explanations for the Great Filter.

Funny, I was thinking the same thing when considering what to title
the posting. We humans are amazing ability to regulate our own happiness
with inventing both imaginary rewards and potential threats.

I have always considered the supernova argument for the GF unlikely. They
are relatively rare compared to the likely timescales of intelligent
evolution and technology, making the variance in the number of novas
during the critical period before sufficiently strong technology large
enough to let quite a few civs through the filter.

-- 
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Anders Sandberg                                      Towards Ascension!
asa@nada.kth.se                            http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/
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