From: John K Clark (jonkc@att.net)
Date: Sun Jan 19 2003 - 15:11:44 MST
"Rüdiger Koch" <rkoch@rkoch.org>
> The US could lose the war, for instance.
> 1. Saddam distributes his army in the cities, basically hiding behind
> children and women. The US forces would need to fight for each and
> every house.
Yes, if Saddam is smart (and there is no evidence he is) that will be his
strategy. There is one ray of hope, Saddam gives orders and people obey him
because they are frightened of him, when it becomes obvious he will lose the
war (and he will) that fear will evaporate. I just hope a lot of people
don't get killed before that happens. By the way this war will settle a
question I've wondered about, is a non nuclear electromagnetic pulse bomb
really a effective weapon? If it is and you start to fight house to house in
Baghdad now would be the time to use it. If it works as advertised nobody is
killed and communication among enemy troops drops to zero playing hell with
moral.
> 2. The US forces get too lax and make a mistake. Iraqi ground forces
> launch a fast attack on Saudi/Kuwait territory, forcing the surprised
> US forces into a large scale ground battle?
I think that is very unlikely, surprise would be imposable and Saddam won't
be able to do anything fast, any moving vehicle will be pulverized from the
air.
> awful oil prices like we have now are not good for the economy.
Yes, and since Iraq has the second largest oil reserves in the world, and
possibly the largest since they have not been exploded nearly as much as
Saudi Arabia, and since oil production is cheaper there than anywhere else
on the planet, the oil being quite shallow, this war could very well lead to
a long term decrease in the price of oil.
John K Clark jonkc@att.net
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