Re: Extropians Investing in the Future

Mark Grant (mark@unicorn.com)
Sun, 22 Dec 1996 12:06:01 +0000


On Sat, 21 Dec 1996, Michael Lorrey wrote:

> off to their own startups producing java products, I would say Sun's
> success as related to Java is more a matter of what it does with it for
> cross platform OS's or apps etc.

Exactly -- the most likely result of widespread Java use is to make the
underlying hardware and operating system irrelevant, as C and its
standardised I/O libraries essentially did for character-based software.
That could be good for Sun, Linux and Apple but bad for Microsoft and
other O/S monsters, though M$ will probably sell more applications as a
result.

Personally I don't think that it will be as big as its supporters claim,
for the same reason that most of us don't use P-code any more. It's just
not fast enough for many operations, even when compiled locally. Also, the
great thing about standard classes is that everyone can have one of their
very own ;-). People will soon decide that the basic Java classes aren't
enough and start writing their own OS-specific extensions, just as many
Web pages now expect you to have fifteen different plug-ins for your Web
browser; "New WhizzBang/Java requires the Microsoft Only-For-Windows(tm)
class"...

> Now that verification classes are
> coming out next year,

Reliable verification is, of course, impossible (remember the Halting
Problem?). The best you can hope for is that version N+1 of the class will
catch the trojan horses that hackers got past version N. The only real way
to 'verify' code is by the reputation of the supplier. I trust Id Software
enough to believe that Java-Doom won't erase my hard disk, but definitely
don't feel the same way about foo@bar.com.

> the security bugs in java that were neccessary to
> make its most powerful tools work that were initially closed will now be
> opened and enhanced.

Not in my Web browser they won't, nor will they be in any Web browser used
by any rational corporation. Luckily, most of the market for Java will
probably be in standalone applications, which can be bought shrinkwrapped
from reliable suppliers and if neccesary run with limited priviledges.

> This should also be accompanied by an explosion in
> the long awaited net trade.

Just like controlled fusion, it always seems to be only a short time away
;-).

Mark

"[Hollywood's] way is so slow and expensive that you'll find yourself
falling asleep on the set and forgetting to say 'action'."
- Robert Rodriguez, 'The Ten Minute Film School'

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