Re: Geron as an investment [Was: Re: Telomerase and cancer ]

Lee March (
Thu, 09 Dec 1999 15:39:00 -0600

Lee Daniel Crocker wrote:

> I don't doubt that your EV from these trades, and every trade you
> make, is probably very high. But as a poker player I have to say that
> regularly putting 5% of your bankroll on a single bet--even if every
> bet has positive expectation--produces an uncomfotably high probability
> of ruin. My poker expectation is about 2 bets per hour; but I have
> upswings and downswings of 100 bets now and then. It's not uncommon
> for pros to have bad _months_. Things generally level out at the
> months-to-years level, but you better have the bankroll to outlast
> those swings. I keep track of my play and can quote you both expectation
> and variance (19!). Do you have similar stats for your trading?
> --
> Lee Daniel Crocker <> <>
> "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein and past,
> are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used or modified
> for any purpose, without permission, attribution, or notification."--LDC


I do not have the stats you ask about for my trading.

The poker analogy is not an accurate one for several reasons.

I would like to apply some analysis to my trade history in the near future to find out if the most profitable trades have anything in common and like wise for the loosers.

I'll let you know when I get some numbers that might be of interest.