Re: Clint & Robert on "Faith in Science"

Maurice Uzick (
Fri, 29 Oct 1999 13:17:51 -0400

Lee, I agree wholeheartedly I will even share the bank with you but please explain the math. The bet is $100 to 0.10cents where does the 0.24 cents come from?.........Murray

Lee Daniel Crocker wrote:

> >> I know the laws of probability are real not because I BELIEVE
> >> in it but because I CAN PROVE IT.
> >
> > <devil's advocacy>
> > Ahem. I assert that you cannot prove it. Robert attacked probability on
> > its strongest side... What would you say to this experiment?
> >
> > I assert that it is completely impossible for you to flip a coin 1 million
> > times and have it turn up heads every time. When I say completely
> > impossible, I mean that it will never EVER happen, no matter how many
> > times you try.
> > </devil's advocacy>
> You're being very sloppy with your language and your thinking here.
> PROOF, as in absolute inviolable certainty, is irrelevant to reality.
> I can't PROVE the laws of probability, but that doesn't mean I have
> to have faith in them to make use of them. There _is_ a useful middle
> ground--committment. I have committed thousands of dollars over the
> years to my mastery of the laws of probability, and given the
> opportunity I will do so again, _until something better comes along_.
> Your million-coin-flip bet is a cop out; you know it isn't physically
> possible to test your theory within your lifetime, so you're safe. If
> you had any balls, you'd offer a bet that's feasible. I offer this
> one to any takers: flip an unmodified US dime 10 times. If it lands
> head-up all 10 times, I'll give you $100, otherwise I'll keep the dime.
> This in no way means I have unlimited unshakable faith in the laws
> of probability. It just means I'm willing to bet $100 on them
> (because I know that on average, I make 0.24 cents every time I take
> this bet).
> --
> Lee Daniel Crocker <> <>
> "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein and past,
> are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used or modified
> for any purpose, without permission, attribution, or notification."--LDC