Re: questioning Y2K
Tue, 27 Oct 1998 05:48:03 -0800 (PST)

Harvey Newstrom [] wrote:
>My predicition is
>that 99% of the errors will be fixed in time, but that the 1% left will
>wreak havoc.

Personally I suspect more like 10%, but the point is the same.

> Imagine just one satellite failing, or one airport not
>being able to fly, or one major computer network being down, or one
>phone company going dead,

But that's easily imagined; we get these kind of problems and deal with them. Y2K is more likely to be one satellite failing AND one airport shut down AND one major computer network down AND one phone company dead AND one state without power AND one stock exchange shut down AND one brand of automobile refusing to run AND one O/S failing AND one country mistakenly launching missiles (though I doubt the latter).

Any one of those problems can be solved rapidly and several can be solved simultaneously. The real question is whether we reach the critical point where so many things are broken that the interactions prevent us fixing any of the problems. If we don't we'll be OK in a few days to a few months, if we do we're hosed.