Re: QUICKIE PREDICTION NEEDED

E. Shaun Russell (e_shaun@uniserve.com)
Sat, 24 Oct 1998 22:31:09 -0700

Eliezer wrote:
>>
>> By the year 3000, it goes almost without saying that most humans will
>> have the means and opportunity to evolve to the transhuman stage. My
>> question--will we have seen the first posthuman(s) by then? How many?
>> In what form?
>
>By the year 2050 at the absolute latest (assuming no civilization-destroying
>wars) I expect that there will be nothing recognizably mortal, much less
>human, in our Solar System. It's a matter of positive feedback.

Out of curiosity, what parameters are you basing this hypothesis on? True, technological progress is being manifested at a rapidly quickening pace, but the moral mindset of this planet's human habitat is generally stubborn, pessimistic and myopic. Given the opportunity of "right here, right now" transcendence into a higher form, it is doubtful that every single mortal would want to upload. There is far to much human stigma. Furthermore, the assumption that technology will have progressed *that* far in the next fifty years is not an extrapolation that I would care to gamble on. Though I would honestly love for this claim to be true, my optimism wanes in the face of my realism. Show me good, hard, *tangible* evidence for your hypothesis and I will probably believe it as well.


E. Shaun Russell Musician, Poet, ExI Member 
==============================>    Transhumanities editor for Homo Excelsior
Kineticize your potential.	   http://www.excelsior.org
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