Re: Economic Growth Assuming Machine Intelligence

Robin Hanson (
Mon, 05 Oct 1998 15:40:43 -0700

>>>What impact might a drastically increased
>>>efficiency in capital utilization have on growth models?
>>Unless you forsee particular reasons to expect a change in the *rate*
>>at which such utilization becomes more efficient, this effect is already
>>included in the standard models of exogenous growth.
>I suspect machine intelligence would radically alter capital utilization on
>a variety of fronts. Machine intelligence with human-level cognitive
>abilities would allow corporations to replace human MBAs with intelligent
>agents capable of assessing scenarios faster and more thoroughly. Finance
>agents might develop extremely complicated but effective capital asset
>pricing models. ...

This all sounds well modeled by a reduction in the price of computation, without a new function which gives production in terms of inputs, including computation. If so, my simple model already includes this.

Robin Hanson RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884 140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614