> The real question is this: will we see a failing of Moore's law in the
> next ten years? Will the performance per price of computers continue
> to grow by a factor of two every two years? This would require five
> doublings in the next ten years. I don't think it will happen.
I think it's a fault to focus too much on Moores law. The funny thing is
that nobody AFAIK has ever meassured the actual performance of a
computer "system" instead of this focusing on the number of processor
gates.
How about in two years time when the new computer systems will be able
to edit video in full broadcast quality, without any extra hardware. In
two years more xDSL will probably be pretty common, so everybody will be
able to have their own tv station. Well in theory at least.
These things are not happening because of doubling in processor power,
but because of changes in existing technology.
The Internet would have happened on a Commodore 64, if that had been the
top level in computer sophistication possible.
I'm not saying that the effects of Moores law are not important but
technology consist of two parts: hardware and methods. (In Danish theres
a better way of putting it: Teknologi = Teknik + Metoder)
I think that generally there's far to much focus on the hardware side of
the equation.
MAX M Rasmussen
New Media Director & Multimedia Artist
Private biz: mailto:maxm@maxmcorp.dk
http://www.maxmcorp.dk
The graphic 3D novel:
http://www.maxmcorp.dk/graphicnovel/index.htm
Work: mailto:maxm@novavision.dk
http://www.novavision.dk/