Re: The Spike, nanotech, and a future scenario

Anton Sherwood (
Mon, 6 Oct 1997 18:53:29 -0700 (PDT)

Dan Clemmensen writes
: ... What I'm frustrated about is the way
: in which the group concerns itself with libertarian issues, tax
: issues, welfare issues, etc. Even if the libertarian philosphy is
: valid in the abstract, the transition from our current politico-economic
: system to a libertarian one, or to any other substantially different
: one, would take so long that it will be overtaken by events before it
: can be completed.

That's one view. Another view is that any functioning economy is,
by necessity, already largely libertarian.

: Basically, IMO libertarianism is a philosophy that
: describes one way in which a human society can constitute itself. But
: human societies don't generally change rapidly without a great deal of
: distortion and pain.

Well, isn't rapid social change what we're all predicting?

: I simply don't feel that such a rapid change is
: justified. The existing setup is good enough to see us through to the
: singularity without an earlier politico-economic revolution. ...

Ah, there's the key disagreement. I don't believe the existing
structure can last; can't you hear it creaking? We're going to see
either widespread defection and escape into the "underground" economy,
or abandonment of the substance of constitutional government, if not
both, by 2010 at the latest.

A few years ago I predicted constitutional crisis in 12 years,
and someone promptly offered to bet that it would come sooner.

Anton Sherwood *\\* +1 415 267 0685 *\\*