Re: The Spike, nanotech, and a future scenario

Hal Finney (
Mon, 6 Oct 1997 09:14:29 -0700

I'm confused about exactly what Moore's Law states. From

Moore's law, which states that the number of transistors per
chip doubles every two years,

>From the Jargon file, e.g.

Moore's Law: /morz law/ prov. The observation that the logic
density of silicon integrated circuits has closely followed the
curve (bits per square inch) = 2^((t - 1962)) where t
is time in years; that is, the amount of information storable in
one square inch of silicon has roughly doubled yearly every year
since the technology was invented. See also Parkinson's Law of

>From an article by Gordon Bell,

It is safe to predict the 2047 computers will be at least 100,000 times
more powerful. If hardware continues to evolve at the annual factor
of 1.60 rate we know as Moore's Law, (Moore, 1996) then computers that
are 10 billion times more powerful will exist! Magnetic storage density
and fiber optic data transmission rates, have evolved at the 60% rate
(a doubling every 18 months, or 100 times per decade), too.

So, I have doublings every two years, every year, and every 18 months,
all offered as statement of Moore's Law.

I suspect Moore originally said doubling either every one or every two
years, and revised this to doubling every 18 months. But it would be
interesting to know the truth.