Re: after all that bullshit about ad hominems, here we go again? (was Re: some U.S. observations and notes)

From: J. R. Molloy (
Date: Sun Dec 23 2001 - 19:59:24 MST

From: "Dossy" <>
> And, women are more prone to automobile accidents according
> to statistics because they spend more time on the roads, so
> statistically they will obviously have more accidents. Men
> are busy 8+ hours of the day at work, or committing crime,
> while the women are out driving around spending all that
> damned money.

As a matter of fact, despite that men drive more miles than do females, men
have fewer accidents per mile driven than do female drivers.

If you want data on men as better drivers, take a look at the names of the
winners of auto races (which are open to anyone with a qualifying lap
time). If you want data on men as safer drivers, it's harder to find (gee,
I wonder why -- duh!). Try:
male/female crash likelihood = 1.29/1.38
AND, don't forget that females may actually CAUSE accidents without being
directly involved. For instance, going slow in the fast lane while
applying make-up, thus encouraging other drivers to pass on the right, and
so forth.


Better Hand/eye Coordination of Male Drivers Reduces Accidents

Males score 42% higher than females in hand/eye coordination events like
springboard and platform diving.

The lower hand/eye coordination skills of females doubles their
likelihood of having a fatal traffic accident.

10,573 more traffic fatalities and 428,484 more non-fatal accidents each
year are caused by the lower hand/eye coordination skills of females.

If all drivers had a safety record equivalent to female drivers, there
would be 39% more traffic accidents annually.

If all drivers nationwide had the same traffic safety record as male
passenger car drivers, there would be 21,795 fewer traffic fatalities in
the US annually.

Per Traffic Safety Facts' "Vehicle Miles of Travel, 1975-1996"
cupants&recordid=0 Americans drove passenger cars 1,478 billion miles in

Per the "Early Results Report" of the Nationwide Personal Transportation
Survery men drive 65.3%
or 965 billion and women drive 513 billion of those miles.

Per Traffic Safety Facts' "Drivers Involvement in Crashes" from the FARS
data base
ivers&recordid=0 male drivers were involved in 2,418,799 fatal and injury
crashes and female drivers were involved in 1,701,043.

Women are one third more likely than men per mile driven to have a fatal
or injury accident, 0.332 vs. 0.251 per 100,000 miles driven, and 17% more
likely to have a property damage only accident, 0.586 vs. 0.502.

Per the NHTSA the
economic cost of motor vehicle crashes in 1994 was $150.5 billion.

If all drivers had the same probability of having an accident as male
drivers, then males would have an even lower accident rate than they
currently have, because they wouldn't be colliding with women who have
one third more accidents than men.

For whatever reason, statistics are routinely abused by the media to
conceal important safety facts. Look at the numbers behind the numbers
before accepting such myths. Men drive 2 1/2 times as many miles as
women. Such an article could obscure for the next 4 decades that, per mile
driven, males have a lower traffic accident rate than females. Also, the
male accident rate is higher than it would be if it were not for the
higher female accident rate. If female drivers had accidents with only
other female drivers, then they would not contribute to an increase in the
male accident rate. But female drivers also have accidents with male
drivers, which increases the accident rate for males by 51.6%.
California's statistics show that the accident rate for males per 100
Million miles, rather than 313.3 as it now is, would be only 201 if all
drivers had the same safety record as male drivers (see calculations
below). Conversely, if all drivers had a safety record equivalent to
female drivers (506.3 accidents per 100 Million miles), there would be
39.4% more accidents each year.

There are 80.7% more accidents today than if all drivers had the
demonstrated safety record per 100 Million miles of California's male
drivers. See Calculations below for Chart A

CHART A -- Male:Female Accident Ratio in California
California Drivers Male Female Total Female:Male Ratio
Percent of all California Drivers in Accidents 6.4% 4.5% 5.5% .7:1
Total California Drivers 8,919,394 8,620,952 17,540,346 .97:1
Drivers/Year in Accidents 570,841 387,943 958,784 .68:1
Miles/Year Driven 187.4 Billion 76.6 Billion 264 Billion .41:1
Accidents Per 100 Million Miles 304.7 506.3 363.2 1.66:1

Miles/Year Driven 264 Billion 0 264 Billion 0
Accidents Per 100 Million Miles 201 0 201 0
Drivers/Year in Accidents 530,640 0 530,640 0
Reduction in Drivers/Year Involved in Accidents 428,484 (44.7% fewer
accidents per year)

Table 3-19 from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, reports the
accident rate for "Large Trucks" (mostly male drivers) is 203 per 100
Million miles, giving credence to this estimated accident rate for
California male drivers. Per the National Safety Council, the loss to
motor vehicle accidents each year is $170.6 Billion. If this safety ratio
applies across the nation, a 44.7% reduction in the accident rate could
save the nation $76.3 Billion per year, or 1.1% of GDP--before taking into
account the benefits of reduced miles driven, reduced traffic congestion,

The article also noted that "even though [truckers] drive about 21% of the
registered vehicles on the road, [they] were involved in only 3% of the
state's fatal accidents". CHP spokeswoman Pat Ryan, a former trucker,
said "Our general experience has been that commercial drivers are safer
drivers. They have to be; it's their livelihood". This is a bit
misleading because it fails to note two important data points:

Males, demonstrably involved in 40% fewer accidents per mile, are 89% of
the nation's truckers (Bureau of Labor Statistics: 3,454,000 male, 428,000
female, truck drivers).
The percent of registered vehicles which are trucks is not as significant
as the fact that truckers drive 32.4% of the nation's miles (US
Statistical Abstract, 865 Billion of 2,667 Billion miles driven each year
are by truckers).
Thus California truckers, for each mile driven, are responsible for 1/11th
as many fatal accidents as the drivers of passenger cars, not 1/7th. We
can predict that 89% of them have a 50% lower probability of having an
accident. This still means that California truckers are involved in
almost 1/6th as many fatal accidents per mile as passenger car drivers
are, which is a real tribute to their profession.

Nationally, as relatively safe as California truckers are, "Traffic Safety
Facts 1995" from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
reports large trucks still "account for" 4,439 of the 41,798 motor vehicle
fatalities each year; light trucks account for 9,539 of these fatalities;
drivers 15-20 years of age -- 7,993; motorcyclists -- 2,221; and passenger
cars, utility trucks and vans operated by drivers over 20 years of age --

If all of the nation's car drivers had a safety record equivalent to male
drivers, then drivers nationwide would be 4 times less likely than female
drivers to be involved in fatal traffic accidents.See Calculations below
for Chart B

CHART B -- Male:Female Fatal Accident Ratio in the US
   Fatal Crash Involvement Males Females Total Female:Male Ratio
Total Fatalities 28,005 13,793 41,798 .5:1
  15-20 Year Old Drivers 5,801 2,192 7,993 .38:1
  Motorcycles 2,121 100 2,221 .05:1
  Large Trucks 3,995 444 4,439 .11:1
  Light Trucks 6,601 2,938 9,539 .22:1
  Car Fatalities (Passenger Car, Utility Truck, & Van) 9,487 8,119 17,606
Considering ONLY Passenger Car Fatalities:
Car Fatalities (Passenger Car, Utility Truck, & Van) 9,487 8,119 17,606
Car Miles Driven (Billions) 1,273 520 1,793 .4:1
Car Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles .75 1.56 0.98 2.1:1

Car Miles Driven (Billions) 1,793 0 1,793 0
Car Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles 0.39 0 0.39 0
Car Fatalities 7,033 0 7,033 0
Lives Saved per Year - 0 10,573 (a 60% reduction) 0

Saving 10,573 lives per year is more lives than are saved every year from
all the child abuse laws, the Violence Against Women's Act, Gun Control
laws, Cancer Research funding, AIDs funding, and OSHA combined. It is
more lives than the NHTSA estimates are saved from seat belts and air bags
combined. It is equivalent to 53 jumbo jet crashes per year, 62 Oklahoma
City Bombings per year, 132 Wacos per year, or 173 Northridge Earthquakes
per year. It is 2.4 times as many lives as are lost to large truck
accidents, 11% more lives as are lost to light truck accidents, and 5
times as are lost to motorcycle accidents, even before considering that
many of those accidents were not solely the fault of just those drivers
involved. It is 6 times as many lives as the NHSTA estimates are saved
from the minimum age drinking laws each year.

CHART C -- Saving 10,573 Lives Per Year
Type of Vehicle & Sex Fatalities Per Year Billion Miles Traveled Per Year
Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles
TOTAL 41,798 2,667 1.6
Large Trucks 4,439 178 2.5
     Trucker Fatalities Only 1,065 178 0.6
Light Trucks 9,539 687 1.4
Motorcycles 2,121 8.8 24.1
All Passenger Car Drivers Over Age 20 17,606 1,793 0.98
Female Passenger Car Drivers Over Age 20 8,119 520 1.56
Male Passenger Car Drivers Over Age 20 9,487 1,273 .75
Female:Male Ratio .86:1 .41:1 2.1:1
If all drivers had a safety record equivalent to that for male passenger
car drivers 20,003 2,667 .75
Lives Saved Annually 21,795 - -
If all passenger car drivers had a safety record equivalent to that for
male passenger car drivers 13,448 1,793 .75
Lives Saved Annually 4,158

If it has the potential to save the nation 1.1% of GDP and 10,753 lives
per year, what is the savings to the nation of an all-male military? What
do you think can or should be done about it? How much are we as taxpayers
willing to spend to afford women super rights, when we as taxpayers cannot
find any benefit from this at all, and particularly when it is so costly
in both dollars and lives? This is how Congress views it:

  102d Congress 1st Session
  Rept. 102171

   Over the period from 1967%1989, the mileage death rate in this country
from 5.2 deaths to 2.2 deaths per 100 million miles of travel. In the last
years alone, the death rate from motor vehicle crashes has been cut by
more than
25%. NHTSA estimates that, in 1988 alone, 6,506 lives were saved by
highway safety
laws and programs: 4,500 saved by safety belts; 1,148 saved by minimum
age laws, 608 saved by motorcycle helmets; and 250 saved by child
Alcohol-related fatalities have been reduced from 50% of the national
rate to around 37%.

  Nonetheless, traffic crashes are still the leading cause of accidental
death in
the U.S., responsible for 34 times the number of accidental deaths as
and 52 times the number of air transport deaths. There are twice as many
deaths as there are homicides. Motor vehicle accidents cost our society
more than
$48 billion in injury costs every year. And drunk driving still is the
factor in the highway crash statistic.

  In light of the large number of people who are killed and injured on the
every year and the substantial projected increase in motor
vehicle-relatedfatalities and
injuries over the next decade, the Committee believes it is
imperative to continue to initiate and to support programs which address
safety issues and problems.

  Throughout this title, the Committee has attempted to make the public
its first and foremost consideration, while persevering in its attempt to
a new intermodal transportation system that reflects greater state
and places fewer burdens on state programming. Toward that end, the
Committee has
modified its support for sanctions and, instead, is relying primarily on
incentives and reprogramming of highway construction funds to highway
safety to
encourage state compliance with the programs established herein.

  When the Committee has incorporated reprogramming as a means of
compliance, it has done so in its focus on national policy as that policy
to public good. The Committee has also done so in the belief that highway
can be improved in all respects by tying reprogrammed funds to highway

 [Did Congress miss the boat, or what?]

Some accidents involve only one driver and some involve 3 or more, a rough
average of 2 drivers per accident, giving us (958,784 accidents divided by
2 drivers/accident), or 479,392 accidents per year. The probability of a
male having an accident is X, and the probability of a female having an
accident as noted above is 1.662 times that, or 1.662X.
A = male:male accident = X x X = X2
B = female:female accident = 1.662X x 1.662X = 2.762X2
C = female:male accident = 1.662X x X = 1.662X2
A + B + C = 479,392 = 5.424X2
X2= 88,383.5
X = 297.3
A = 88,383.5
B = 244,115.2
C= 146,893.4
If the probability per mile of an accident of all of the B drivers were
the same as the A drivers, then the number of B accidents would have been
88,383.5 rather than 244,115.2, which is 155,731.7 less. If all the C
drivers had the same probability of having an accident as the A drivers,
then the number of C accidents would have been 88,383.5 rather than
146,893.4, which is 58,509.9 less. Instead of 479,392 accidents, if
drivers B & C had had the same skill as drivers A, there would have been
only 265,150 accidents, which is 214,242, or 44.7%, fewer accidents, and
428,484 fewer drivers involved in accidents. This is an accident rate of
(530,300/264 Billion) or 201 per 100M miles.

The probability of a male car driver of having a fatal accident is X, and
the probability of a female having a fatal accident (as noted above) is
2.1 times that, or 2.1X.
A = male:male accident = X x X = X2
B = female:female accident = 2.1X x 2.1X = 4.41X2
C = female:male accident = 2.1X x X = 2.1X2
A + B + C = 17,606 total fatalities
A + B + C = 7.51X2
X2= 2,344.3
X = 48.4
A = 2,344.3
B = 10,338.4
C = 4,923
If the probability of a fatality of all of the B drivers were the same as
the A drivers, then the number of B fatalities would have been 2,344.3
rather than 10,338.4, which is 7,994.1 less. If the probability of a
fatality of all of the C drivers were the same as the A drivers, then the
number of C fatalities would have been 2,344.3 rather than 4,923, which is
2,578.7 less. Instead of 17,606 fatalities, if drivers B & C had had the
same skill as the A drivers, there would have been only 7,033 fatalities,
which is 10,573, or 60%, fewer fatalities. This is a fatality rate of
(7,033/1,793 Billion) or 0.39 fatalities per 100 Million miles.

--- --- --- --- ---

Useless hypotheses, etc.:
 consciousness, phlogiston, philosophy, vitalism, mind, free will, qualia,
analog computing, cultural relativism, GAC, Cyc, Eliza, cryonics, individual
uniqueness, ego, human values, scientific relinquishment, malevolent AI,
non-sensory experience, SETI

We move into a better future in proportion as science displaces superstition.

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