Dan Clemmensen wrote:
>
> Spike Jones wrote:
>
> > ... various schools of thought on the singularity with respect to the
> > expected time frames. I know we already have terminology such
> > as hard take-off, gradual, The Spike, etc. In fact I think there is
> > a website that has all of that. {Where?} Is there a term for those
> > who make no plans more than 8 or 10 years hence? Those like
> > myself who expect about 50 more years before a hard takeoff
> > singularity? spike
>
> We are a fairly quantitative bunch of people, so I think we
> stratify primarily by projected date of the event. I'm still
> on track for 2006, Elizier appears to think 2008, and most
> of the "mainstream" projections are in the 2020-2050 range. I
> get the sense that newer "mainstream" projections are closer,
> in the 2015-2020 range.
Actually, I'm quantitative and probabilistic. So I express ETS (estimated
time to Singularity) as a curve peaking at 2008-2010 and falling off to
below 5% at 2005 and 2020, assuming world events go on more or less as
usual (no nuclear war, no Baylor Jihad). That's in a world with a
Singularity Institute, though.
-- -- -- -- --
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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