Dec. 29, 08:30 EDT
Futurists drop doom and gloom for 2000s
By Louise Surette
Staff Reporter thestar.com
As the year 2000 comes to an end, the one thing we know
for sure is that the world didn't come to an end as
some had predicted.
Y2K chaos? Didn't happen. Tidal waves? Uh-uh. Droughts?
Disasters? Well, just the usual stuff.
Still, that hasn't stopped futurists and forecasters
from coming up with a new round of forecasts, from
guesses about where the stock market is headed to
predictions about 'career pills' that postpone
menopause. And while last year's predictions were very
much doom and gloom, this year's are decidedly upbeat.
They don't see technology as such a bad thing, either,
and whether it's business, lifestyles or medical
breakthroughs, the future looks rosy.
"People are so glad that nothing bad happened they're
extra confident now. They feel as if they can control
almost everything," says Marc Zwelling, a Toronto-based
futurist and president of Vector Research and
Development. Zwelling predicts, among other things,
that the Internet will yet prove to be a passing fad.
One group that always has something to say this time of
year is The World Future Society, an international
group of futurists with chapters around the globe.
The Maryland-based society's membership includes
leading futurists in the areas of finance, science and
technology. The membership is made up primarily of
academics, scientists and research analysts and
consultants.
The January 2001 issue of the group's magazine, The
Futurist, predicts we'll be putting more money into
stocks, despite signs of an economic slowdown. It also
says the bull market of the 1990s will continue
uninterrupted, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
hitting 40,000 points by 2016. It closed out 2000 at
10,786.85.
On the broader economy, the group sees a rosy outlook
for the foreseeable future, but Dan Johnson, the
magazine's assistant editor, says while that's the
magazine's view, many Society members aren't so sure.
Among the other forecasts:
A larger proportion of the population will be single,
as more people postpone or forgo marriage. This will
lead to products and services aimed at this group.
Within the decade, women will be able to take a "career
pill" that will reset their biological clocks and
postpone menopause.
Leisure-oriented business will dominate the world
economy by 2015, thanks to productivity improvements
that give people more time to play.
Gene therapy will by 2050 improve people's learning
abilities and reverse the effects of aging on memory.
Within the next 20 years the echo-boom generation, or
children of the baby boomers, will wield more economic
power than their parents. They are already saving and
investing at a much earlier age than their parents.
David Woolfson, co-ordinator for the Toronto chapter of
the World Future Society, says that while futurists are
optimistic in the short term, there are plenty of
challenges ahead.
"If you look at population growth and environmental
degradation, these are big trends. Many feel that 2020
is when these pressures will erupt."
The key is to plan ahead - but that doesn't usually
happen, Woolfson says.
"Being a futurist involves a thought process of
addressing 10 or 20 years in the future and most people
don't think that way. They'd rather know what is going
to happen next week."
PAST FUTURES
Some famous and not-so-famous predictions from years
gone by:
In 1946, American film producer Darryl Zanuck said,
"Television won't be able to hold on to any market it
captures after the first six months. People will soon
get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."
Issac Asimov predicted in 1969 that nuclear power would
meet all of our energy needs by the year 2000.
Charles Duell, U.S. commissioner of patents, said in
1899, "The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is
only a novelty, a fad."
Arthur C. Clarke, British futurist and author of the
novel 2001: A Space Odyssey, may have been anticipating
the Internet when he predicted the world would one day
have "a great global library." But he was way off when
he said that by now all the planets would be colonized.
Former American vice-president Hubert H. Humphrey
(1965-69) was right when he predicted that hereditary
defects would be corrected through the modification of
genetic chemistry by 2000, but wrong when he suggested
bacterial and viral diseases would be eliminated.
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, said in 1943, "I think
there is a world market for maybe five computers."
Inventor R. Buckminster Fuller said in 1966, "By 2000,
politics will simply fade away. We will not see any
political parties."
Aumentar!
Onward,
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