Well, the Iowa market was about .75 for Bush, meaning a .25 probability
for Gore. Flipping 2 heads in a row is not that unusual.
On Thu, 9 Nov 2000, Brian Atkins wrote:
> Republicans are hinting that after all the absentee and overseas ballots
> come in for all states that Bush will have won the popular (raw) vote at
> the national level. So surprisingly the idea futures still have a shot at
> correctly predicting this.
> --
> Brian Atkins
> Director, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
> http://www.singinst.org/
>
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