Re: Comments on elections

From: Brian Atkins (
Date: Wed Nov 08 2000 - 08:39:04 MST

Well in other news, the idea futures market badly missed. Any ideas why
they were so off? Actually it would appear the old "wall street" predictor
came through- Dow Jones has been up lately, and I wager this tipped the
popular vote more towards Gore. Oddly enough the stock market's anticipation
of Bush may have given the popular vote to Gore.

Robin Hanson wrote:
> I wrote:
> > You might want to revise your views in light of *data* we have on
> > how previous markets have done. They have consistently done better
> > than opinion polls and do not show a bias toward conservative candidates.
> > See:
> Harvey Newstrom responded:
> >No offense, but I reviewed the data. At first glance, it did not seem to be
> >that predictive, and all the races I reviewed showed a clear Republican
> >bias. ...
> >Do you have any specific data comparing this market with opinion polls? Do
> >you have any specific data comparing this market with the actual outcomes?
> >My quick glanced seemed to find that it failed on both counts.
> The URL I gave includes this cite:
> Forsythe, R., F. Nelson, GR. Neumann and J. Wright (1992) "Anatomy of an
> Experimental Political Stock Market." American Economic Review, 82:1142-1161.
> at
> and now temporarily at
> This describes in detail the market during the 1988 presidential election.
> Traders were indeed more republican than average, but consistently estimated
> a lower share for the republican than opinion polls were suggesting.
> Robin Hanson
> Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
> MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
> 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

Brian Atkins
Director, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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